If part of your reason for owning Tesla is “Optimus, the humanoid robot” — this is for you.

I know the logic: there’s no pure humanoid name on public markets, Figure and Physical Intelligence are private and un-buyable, so TSLA must be the only way to buy “humanoid upside.”

Problem is: when you buy TSLA for Optimus, what you actually get is almost anything but Optimus.

One table blows it up

Morgan Stanley’s $425 price target for Tesla breaks into four pieces (a sum-of-the-parts):

See it? The Optimus you wanted to bet on is ~14% — and that 14% is already cut in half for execution and adoption risk. You’re actually 73% buying Robotaxi + FSD ($165 + $145), not the machine hauling boxes in Fremont.

Even the “already earning” auto business is only $55 — about 13% of the price. In other words, ~90% of Tesla’s stock is the market’s collective bid on four “not-yet-delivered” bets — a forward P/E around 190, pure-faith pricing.

This isn’t bearish on Tesla — it’s seeing what you own

Someone will say: so what, if Optimus delivers, that 14% re-rates.

True — but be honest about cause and effect: if you genuinely like humanoids, buying TSLA is an indirect bet diluted down to 14%, and its moves are driven mainly by Robotaxi and FSD. You think you’re betting on A; your exposure is mostly B. That’s the most hidden error in a portfolio: thesis and exposure don’t match.

So if you’re going to hold TSLA, tell yourself one sentence plainly: I’m mainly buying Robotaxi + FSD; Optimus is a small option riding along. Size it on that understanding — it’s more a “mega-cap option diluted by a giant body” than your pure humanoid upside.

Want pure humanoid or robot-brain upside? It lives in private names like Figure and Physical Intelligence — and note, they’re Optimus’s competitors, not Optimus itself — which you still can’t touch. Admitting that beats fooling yourself.

A loud name doesn’t mean the right exposure. Before you price an option bundle, take it apart and see what each piece actually is.

Your TSLA position — which piece did you buy it for: Robotaxi, FSD, or the 14% Optimus? Your reasoning below.

(Independent industry and educational research, not investment advice. Companies named and sell-side estimates are illustrative examples, not recommendations. Data is from public sources and may change. The author and affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned.)

— Adapted from Embodied Intelligence Investing, Deep Dive X: MP & TSLA

#Tesla #Humanoids #EmbodiedAI