0:00
所以周一，两个不同的论文投下了一颗量子炸弹，一篇来自
0:04
谷歌，另一篇
0:05
来自一群学术界人士，会被称为第二篇“原子级”论文。
0:09
对。我知道你一直在关注这个。你会如何总结这些
0:14
论文的重要性？
0:15
天哪，极其重要。我觉得称其为量子炸弹
0:19
可能是正确的。
0:20
这是最大的……能现场快速说出来真不错。
0:23
好吧，整个加密圈都在谈论它，主流新闻也在报道
0:27
它。许多
0:28
圈外评论员也加入了讨论。这基本上是本周最大新闻，理应如此。
0:32
week and deservedly
0:33
我认为我们应该从贾斯汀·德雷克开始，看他的评论。他说，
0:37
“今天，
0:38
”（指论文发布当天）“是量子计算
0:42
和密码学的一个重大日子。两篇突破性论文刚刚发布，两篇论文都改进了肖尔
0:43
算法，
0:49
这个算法因破解RSA而著名。”不是莱因霍恩-亚当斯，是另一种RSA。
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infamous for cracking RSA." Not Rhynchon Adams, the other RSA.
0:54
“椭圆曲线密码学。这两个结果叠加，对量子
1:00
堆栈的不同层进行了优化。结果令人震惊，”他说。“我预期叙事会转变，
1:00
并推动
1:05
后量子密码学的研发。”他还说，“他对Q-Day
1:06
——即某种量子计算机能破解比特币或以太坊密码学之日——的信心
1:11
是10%可能性，到2032年，且还在下降。”
1:13
at which some quantum computer can crack Bitcoin or Ethereum cryptography, 10%
1:19
谷歌在这篇论文中强烈建议所有加密领域
1:22
人士注意，甚至不仅是注意，而是要在2029年前升级到后量子技术。
1:28
all of crypto take
1:29
事实上，这正是谷歌内部正在做的事情。谷歌明确向加密
1:36
行业发出了声明。
1:36
大卫，这整篇论文专门为加密行业撰写，
1:41
他们就像，
1:42
“嘿，加密兄弟们，这篇是给你们的。”
1:48
industry. They're like,
1:49
完全正确。这个消息就像……能被谷歌听见真好，
1:52
你不会期待他们对加密货币的了解这么深，
1:59
但这篇论文，
2:00
大约三四十页，大家可以自己看，也可以用你们的AI助手帮忙，
2:05
但它明确针对加密货币，详细讨论了
2:06
比特币、以太坊及其他链的特定解决方案和问题。
2:10
bots if you'd like,
2:11
实际的创新是什么？
2:16
我认为这很重要。尼克·卡特的观点是，谷歌，我们几周前报道过，
2:17
他们公布了内部的量子时间表。
2:20
他们希望到2029年实现完全的量子抗性，这似乎是突如其来的。问题是，
2:23
他们看到了什么？
2:29
为什么他们公布了这些日期？因为NIST和其他政府机构说的是2032年，
2:30
甚至到2035年。
2:33
看起来时间还很充裕，而谷歌却说，“嘿，伙计们，我们要
2:34
在2029年完成，所以他们到底看到了什么？”
2:38
what did Google see?
2:39
他们看到了谷歌论文中提到的肖尔算法
2:43
的20倍减少和改进，这能破解比特币和以太坊的
2:44
密码学。
2:48
doing it by 2029,
2:50
当我说20倍提升时，我指的是实际物理量子比特数的减少，
2:55
而量子比特是破解比特币和以太坊ECDSA签名方案的硬件需求。
2:57
and improvement in Shor's algorithm that could break Bitcoin Ethereum's
3:02
“可用量子比特”即硬件要求。
3:03
When I say a 20x improvement, I'm talking about the number of physical qubits
3:09
确切地说。当我们构建量子计算机时，我把量子比特当作CPU
3:10
的浮点运算能力。它代表了计算机的算力。
3:15
Usable qubits is the hardware requirement.
3:18
没错。
3:24
如果量子比特数减少，意味着计算机本身算力不那么强，
3:25
但能完成更强大的任务。
3:28
对，以前的估计是需要数千万量子比特才能完成。
3:32
powerful, but can do
3:33
他们发布了对肖尔算法的改进，
3:39
使得现在只需50万个物理量子比特？
3:40
of qubits to do this. Will they just release an improvement to the algorithm,
3:44
如果拥有相应硬件，这约9分钟即可完成攻击。
3:46
再说一次，这50万个物理量子比特
3:52
9分钟内就能破解比特币或以太坊，夺取密钥。
3:57
physical qubits,
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0:00
So on Monday, a quantum bomb was dropped by two different papers, one out of
0:04
Google and another
0:05
out of a bunch of academics will call it the second one the oratomic paper.
0:09
Right. I know you were paying attention to this. How would you summarize the
0:14
significance of these
0:15
papers? Oh, my God. Incredibly significant. I think calling it a cue bomb a
0:19
quantum bomb is
0:20
probably right. It's the biggest... Nice to speed that up on the fly.
0:23
Well, everyone in crypto was talking about it. Mainstream news was talking
0:27
about it. We have a lot
0:28
of commentators outside who have weighed in. It was basically the news of the
0:32
week and deservedly
0:33
so. I think we should start here with Justin Drake, some of his comments. He
0:37
said, "Today,"
0:38
he's talking about when these papers dropped, "today is a momentous day for
0:42
quantum computing
0:43
and cryptography. Two breakthrough papers just landed. Both papers improve Shor
0:49
's algorithm,
0:50
infamous for cracking RSA." Not Rhynchon Adams, the other RSA.
0:54
"An elliptic curve cryptography. The two results compound, optimizing separate
1:00
layers of the quantum
1:00
stack. The results are shocking," he said. "I expect a narrative shift and
1:05
further R&D boost
1:06
towards post-quantum cryptography." He goes on to say, "His confidence in Q-Day
1:11
, which is the day
1:13
at which some quantum computer can crack Bitcoin or Ethereum cryptography, 10%
1:19
chance by 2032 and
1:22
dropping for Justin Drake." Google in this paper is strongly recommending that
1:28
all of crypto take
1:29
notice and beyond notice and to upgrade to post-quantum by the year 2029. In
1:36
fact,
1:36
that's what Google is doing internally. Google made an explicit statement
1:41
towards the crypto
1:42
industry. This whole paper, David, was specifically written for the crypto
1:48
industry. They're like,
1:49
"Hey, crypto, bros. This one's for you guys."
1:52
Completely. The knowledge it was like... It is nice to be heard. This is coming
1:59
from Google,
2:00
right? You don't expect them to be as cryptocurrency literate as they were
2:05
indeed, but this paper,
2:06
I mean, it's 30 to 40 pages. You guys can go through it, run it through your AI
2:10
bots if you'd like,
2:11
but it is directed towards cryptocurrency. They go through specific solutions
2:16
and problems for
2:17
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a list of other chains as well.
2:20
What was the actual innovation?
2:23
I think that's important. The way Nick Carter frames this is Google, I think we
2:29
reported a
2:30
couple of weeks ago, did drop their internal quantum deadlines. They want to be
2:33
fully quantum
2:34
resistance by 2029, and that seems to come out of nowhere. The question is,
2:38
what did Google see?
2:39
Why did they drop these dates? Because NIST and other government agencies were
2:43
talking 2032,
2:44
by 2035. It seemed like we had more time than Google's like, "Hey, guys, we're
2:48
doing it by 2029,
2:50
so what did they see?" This is what they saw. The Google paper is talking about
2:55
a reduction of 20x
2:57
and improvement in Shor's algorithm that could break Bitcoin Ethereum's
3:02
cryptography.
3:03
When I say a 20x improvement, I'm talking about the number of physical qubits
3:09
required to actually
3:10
break ECDSA, which is the signature scheme for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
3:15
Usable qubits is the hardware requirement.
3:18
Exactly. When we're building a quantum computer, I think of qubits as just the
3:24
flop capacity of a
3:25
CPU. How powerful is this computer? Exactly.
3:28
If we have a reduction in qubits, it means the computer is simply not as
3:32
powerful, but can do
3:33
more powerful things. That's right. Previous estimates were it would take tens
3:39
of millions
3:40
of qubits to do this. Will they just release an improvement to the algorithm,
3:44
to Shor's algorithm,
3:46
that now make it take only 500,000 physical qubits? In a runtime of about
3:52
nine minutes, if they had the appropriate hardware, again, those 500,000
3:57
physical qubits,
3:58
it would only take nine minutes for them to go attack Bitcoin or Ethereum and
4:03
going to the keys.
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