The Barbell: Bet on One Scenario, and One Future Will Break You
Facing a space where valuation runs far ahead of delivery, most bet by picking one scenario: all-in on body upside, or touch nothing. But betting one scenario means one future โ bull, base, or bear โ breaks you. A barbell survives all three: left end certainty (shovel sellers, no single-winner bet), right end moat + upside (downstream data flywheels), avoid the commoditized middle, theme stocks only as capped options, always hold cash. Don't bet the scenario โ build the structure.
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