0:00
我们一直看好预测市场,但即便如此,过去几年的增长还是让我们非常
0:04
惊讶。
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增长速度超出预期。
0:07
现在,支持者,比如我们银行名单上的人,会说这些是信息
0:12
市场,
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它们对社会有益,是新闻和事件等的真相机器,
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基于权益的投票。
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但也有一批人反对预测市场,发出一些
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抗议声。
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有人说这只是另一种赌博,
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对社会未必有益,
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会产生上瘾,
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可能导致内幕交易,所以预测市场也有一些
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批评。
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你怎么看?
0:39
在最高层面上,
0:40
预测市场对社会是好是坏?
0:44
它们是好事还是坏事?
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我认为它们对社会有益,很多人没意识到的是,
0:53
关于
0:53
预测市场,虽然它们上的交易量确实存在,
0:59
交易量
1:00
远小于股票市场或期权市场,
1:05
但它们还有更广泛的用途,作为真相机器,
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是传统新闻媒体的替代品。
1:13
越来越多的美国人开始依赖预测市场
1:15
来判断什么是真实的、什么可能发生。
1:19
过去人们通过新闻媒体获取这些信息,但随着新闻业务
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模式的变化,
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新闻媒体越来越远离尽快告诉你真相和信息,
1:28
而是更倾向于拖延信息传递,让你只是被娱乐,观看更多广告。
1:33
这就留下了一个空缺,
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即:如果我想知道某件事并得到真实信息,该用什么机制?
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我认为预测市场很好地填补了这个空白,
1:40
你会看到它们会越来越普及。
1:44
现代媒体一团糟。
1:45
每个平台都有偏见,但并非每个新闻消费者都意识到他们消费的平台有偏见。
1:51
这就是为什么当我想了解真相时,我会去Polymarket,世界上最无偏见的
1:56
新闻平台。
1:58
从Polymarket.com获取你的信息。
0:00
We've been longtime bullish prediction markets, but even we have been very
0:04
surprised at the
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growth of the last couple of years.
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Now, proponents, like probably us on bank lists, say that these are information
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markets, that
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these are good for society, that there are truth machines for things like news
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and events,
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stake-weighted voting around this.
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But there's a crowd that's kind of anti-prediction markets and some clamoring
0:24
about this.
0:24
Some people say it's just another form of gambling, it's not necessarily good
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for society,
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it creates addictions, it incense maybe insider trading, so there's some
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criticism of prediction
0:37
markets as well.
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What's your take?
0:40
At the highest level on prediction markets, are these things good for society?
0:44
Are they bad for society?
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I think they're good for society and I think what a lot of people don't realize
0:53
about
0:53
prediction markets is, sure, they're trading and volume that's happening on
0:59
them.
1:00
The trading volume is much smaller than it is in equities markets or options
1:05
markets,
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but there's also a much broader use case of these being used as truth machines,
1:13
as being
1:15
alternatives to traditional news media.
1:19
More and more Americans are increasingly turning to prediction markets to have
1:24
clarity on what's
1:26
true or what's likely to happen.
1:28
It used to be that they would go to news media for this, but as the business
1:33
model of news
1:34
media has gone further and further away from giving you the truth and giving
1:38
you the information
1:40
or what's likely to happen as quickly as possible and more toward how can we
1:44
delay you getting
1:45
the information so that you're just entertained and can watch more ads.
1:51
That's opened up a hole for the original purpose, which is let's say I want to
1:56
know something
1:58
and get the actual information.
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What's the mechanism for that?
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I think prediction markets have filled in that gap quite well and you'll see
2:10
over time
2:10
that they just proliferate everywhere.
2:14
Modern media is a mess.
2:15
Every platform has a bias, but not every news consumer is aware of the platform
2:18
's bias
2:19
that they're consuming.
2:20
That's why when I want to learn the truth, I go to Polymarket, the world's most
2:23
unbiased
2:24
news platform.
2:25
Get your signal from Polymarket.com.
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