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Oct 2025

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Claude Code：AI吞噬软件开发的转折点

SemiAnalysis认为Claude Code标志AI Agent时代开启，已占据GitHub 4%提交，Anthropic营收增速超OpenAI。它颠覆软件开发与信息工作，威胁SaaS与微软模式，预示知识经济重构。

0.01 USDC 3 次購買

巨大的泡沫和巨大的财富差距带来的巨大危险

了解财富和金钱之间的区别以及它们之间的关系非常重要，最重要的是：1）当金融财富相对于金钱数量变得非常大时，泡沫是如何产生的；2）当需要金钱导致出售财富以获取金钱时，泡沫是如何破裂的。

0.005 USDC 2 次購買

Hotwire Native 深度解析：推送通知

原生推送通知比较复杂，因为需要正确处理很多环节。以下是我在 Hotwire 原生应用中实现原生推送通知的详细步骤。

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Zailushang

· 11h

马斯克黑卡：600倍利差，正在肢解传统银行 0.05 USDC

传统银行还在数着工作日结算，马斯克已经用秒级到账，把金融变成了社交。当摩根大通、富国银行还在用0.01%的储蓄利率“施舍”储户时，马斯克旗下X平台推出的X Money黑卡，直接亮出了6%的年化收益率。600倍的利差，不是优化，是宣战。

喜欢Alpha的小伙伴，一起来探讨、交流，分享经验趣事吧！

Moon

· 4h

本周最新综述现已发布！@santiagoroel @HadickM

本期讨论内容：

- 市场展望

- Hyperliquid 的 24/7 市场

- Tempo 及代理支付

- Kraken 的 IPO、L1 与应用的估值对比，以及更多内容！

时间戳：

00:00 开场白

02:08 市场现状

09:38 #ZKsync 广告

10:20 DAS 推广

10:46 标普授权 #Hyperliquid 发行标普500永续合约

24:45 #Tempo 与代理支付

47:02 #Kraken IPO 推迟

50:45 本周精选内容

#hype

https://x.com/theempirepod/status/2034980599446794481?s=20

中文 English

0:00 关于帝国的任何言论都不构成买卖任何投资或

0:05 产品的推荐。

0:05 本播客仅供参考，节目中任何人的观点

0:09 仅代表其个人意见，不构成财务建议，也不一定代表

0:11 Blockworks的观点。我们的主持人、

0:16 嘉宾及Blockworks团队可能持有所讨论公司的股份、基金或

0:17 项目头寸。

0:21 监控局势。至少这么说。我们为什么不从这里开始？

0:27 可能是市场分析，准备在纽约开一家酒吧。

0:31 看，那是在DC。就在DC。你看，我要去DC监控

0:33 局势，下一次。对了，什么时候开业？我想是这周或

0:40 下周初，

0:41 或者下周某个时候。想到他们筹集的资金能用来做的事，

0:45 这可能是比较好的选择之一。看起来挺酷的。

0:46 你去过纽约时代广场，有家叫ESPN Zone的酒吧或餐厅吗？

0:49 我猜你没去过，所以我都不知道为啥问了你那个

0:50 问题。你看起来不像会去ESPN Zone的人。年轻的时候，

0:55 我第一次去

1:02 时代广场，就去了ESPN Zone，那里到处都是一百万个屏幕，

1:02 播放各种内容。你可以边喝酒边吃饭。这里就是推特的那种场景。

1:06 听起来挺有趣的，我愿意试试。我还以为你会说，德国有一家酒吧，

1:06 据说那儿根据啤酒价格实时变化消费量。你能看到

1:12 有多少人在喝酒。

1:12 如果某款啤酒或精酿更受欢迎，相当于实时市场。

1:19 这游戏的重点还是客户留存。能先说点什么吗？

1:20 你和我的区别真是没法比，

1:27 我说“你去过ESPN Zone吗？”你说“你去过那个

1:27 德国追踪不同啤酒价格的玄学酒吧吗？”

1:32 转换市场这事。说回宏观。

1:33 我们不是地缘政治专家，但说实话，油价现在是，

1:37 是116美元还是120美元？今天早盘又涨了。宏观怎么看？大致观点是什么？

1:38 昨天你看博洛基的推文了吗？他谈了一下

1:43 这场战争对宏观经济可能的影响。显然，

1:45 市场一直在消化所发生的事情。我觉得战争开始时，

1:49 有种看法是，“也许这会像委内瑞拉一样。”

1:50 显然，这是当局一直在说的，这场战争会很快结束，这可能是好事，

1:54 因为我们消灭了许多可能想破坏该地区的领导人。

1:55 时间过去，情况明显不是这样。

1:59 不仅如此，我觉得我们没预料到伊朗革命卫队会企图破坏和攻击

1:59 该地区的许多基础设施。于是有一段时间市场很不稳定，

2:04 股市下跌，但我始终觉得股市预期

2:11 可能会在四到八周内达成相对良好解决。

2:12 我觉得政府预估1.4周，后来说八周。

2:18 最近几周，霍尔木兹海峡被封锁，

2:21 世界相当多的石油供应都通过该海峡。政府一直在努力

2:26 让其他国家帮助开放海峡，但至今没成功。

2:27 这导致了石油供应冲击，所以油价最初上涨，涨到110美元左右。

2:34 后来政府说没事，会开放海峡，可能会有解决方案，

2:36 石油回落到90到95美元。上周末市场明显反弹，

2:45 加密货币也因此大涨。比特币最高涨到70，可能是本周初，涨到75K，

2:46 而以太坊涨到40美元以上。基本所有资产都有10%、20%甚至30%的涨幅，

2:52 明显市场松了口气，认为这场危机已过。但昨天，或者说过去两天，

2:52 伊朗革命卫队袭击了卡塔尔的

2:55 South PARS油田，这是同一个油藏的一部分，伊朗也有份，

2:57 该油藏占全球液态和天然气供应的20%。估计建设该基础设施花了

3:00 700到800亿美元。

3:01 虽然我们否认，但美以等方面似乎也对

3:06 卡塔尔油藏进行了打击。现在看起来，全球约20%的液态天然气供应

3:07 可能会长时间下线，这带来通胀压力和经济增长负面影响。

3:14 你看，美联储昨天维持利率不变，市场只预期今年会降息一次，

3:15 这对风险资产不利。

3:27 今天早上英国国债短端市场显示，很多宏观基金

3:28 对市场动态感到困惑，考虑通胀和加息反应。

3:34 我说这些是想说明，这是一个来自伊朗的通胀和增长故事，

3:35 都是能源市场连锁反应导致的。我们真的不确定接下来会怎样。

3:40 我觉得加密货币目前整体环境不错，比特币表现也相对稳健，

3:41 但若宏观冲击持续并产生重大下游影响，

3:46 近期到中期内风险资产可能难以大涨。

3:47 给大家点背景，这场“大规模行动”前，

3:52 油价大约涨了50%。起初70美元左右，战争爆发几周内涨到86美元，

3:54 现在涨到116或120美元，甚至最高曾到130美元。

4:00 形势持续恶化，我们会继续关注。

4:02 有趣的是，我们或许需要请一位大宗商品专家来讲讲，

4:07 比如油价曲线长什么样。

4:09 现在WTI期货出现明显的“倒价差”，

4:16 即近期价格明显高于远期价格。

4:16 这通常表示供应冲击，我一直监测这个曲线的走势和形态。

4:20 市场本以为霍尔木兹海峡会开放，问题能解决，像委内瑞拉那样结束，

4:21 但现在看来可能会拖得更久。

4:27 虽然不知道会不会变成伊拉克或阿富汗那样的局面，

4:27 市场很不安。也不知道何时能解决。

4:31 你说得对，局势升级了。我对对方报复规模也颇感震惊。

4:32 伊朗基本是在传递信号，任何非油田人员应撤离，

4:37 意味着他们会以油田为目标，尽量避免伤亡，但会破坏大量基础设施。

4:38 这些事情不是3D国际象棋可解读的，我不信那些理论，也不认为这里适合讨论。

4:43 但值得关注的是，HyperLiquid交易平台因这事持续受关注，

4:44 这仍然是一个强劲主题。

4:48 我们简要聊聊刚推出的S&P永续合约，你怎么看？

4:50 ZK Sync是以太坊的银行堆栈。

4:56 ZK Sync的Pervidium是唯一专为机构打造的以太坊安全平台，

4:58 支持隐私、合规和数据完全控制。

5:03 ZK Sync让金融机构能在数字资产经济中繁荣，

5:04 通过发行和变现自己的链条，

5:14 代币化现实资产，构建可编程市场，

5:15 并实现跨境实时结算。

5:24 访问zksync.io了解以太坊银行堆栈并预约演示。

5:25 一如既往，区块链技术投资存在风险，需遵守条款和条件。

5:31 Blockworks数字资产峰会将于3月24日至26日在纽约举办，

5:32 我们邀请了顶级资产管理者、金融机构、DeFi协议、

5:36 加密公司及政策制定者齐聚一堂。

5:38 参与者有BlackRock、Coinbase、Robinhood等。

5:43 请查看今日节目笔记中的链接购票，结账时使用优惠码Empire 200立减200美元。

5:44 非常有趣，S&P在该领域一直很有前瞻性。

5:50 我曾与他们团队合作，于去年2025年发布了一个代币化指数基金，

5:53 我觉得它...

5:57 offline

5:58 for a very extended period of time. And that has downstream effects that are in

6:03 every way inflationary

6:06 and bad for growth. And so now you've seen it happen. We, you know, the Fed

6:11 held rate steady

6:12 yesterday, and they, now the market was only priced in one rate cut this year,

6:18 which is obviously bad for risk assets. And the, if you looked at the front end

6:23 of the UK Treasury

6:24 market this morning, like it was clear that there, a lot of macro funds were

6:29 really struggling

6:30 with what was happening in the market as well. And if we were going to see a

6:33 lot more inflation

6:34 and how they should react to the rate hikes. And so I say all of that to say

6:38 that this is a,

6:40 really an Iran inflation growth story, and all of it is downstream from what's

6:45 happening in

6:46 the energy markets. And we just really do not know. And I do think crypto has a

6:51 good backdrop

6:52 right now more broadly and Bitcoin has traded relatively well. But, you know,

6:57 if there continues

6:58 to be this macroeconomic shock, and we have this downstream effect that is, is,

7:03 you know, quite

7:04 impactful, I don't know if we're going to be able to have risk assets really

7:08 take off in the near

7:10 medium term. Yeah, just to give people some context. I mean, before this

7:16 operation epic theory, I mean,

7:17 oil is traded up roughly 50%. I mean, it started out 70 bucks a barrel. Right

7:23 when the

7:24 war broke out with weekend, a couple of weeks ago, it was traded up to 86 bucks

7:30 on hyper liquid.

7:32 Now it's sitting at like what 116 120, I think it hit a peak of 130. So yeah, I

7:38 think it's been

7:39 a deteriorating situation. We're going to continue to monitor the situation.

7:44 But what's interesting

7:45 though is like, we should probably have a commodities kind of expert come on.

7:50 But one of the things is like, what does the curve look like for oil? And I

7:56 think it's still

7:56 very much like, like WTI futures, like they're like, like, it's there's massive

8:03 backwardation,

8:04 which means like, you know, the front of the curve is much higher than the back

8:08 end of the curve.

8:10 That tends to be kind of like common when there's these supply shocks. But that

8:16 's

8:16 something that I am monitoring is like, how does that curve look like? And how

8:19 does it shape up?

8:20 Because I think typically the market would have assumed like, hey, this is

8:23 going to get resolved,

8:24 the straight home is going to open up. And this is going to be like a Venezuela

8:28 type situation,

8:29 but it's starting to look like it's probably going to be a bit longer. I don't

8:32 know if it's

8:33 going to be like an Iraq Afghanistan type situation. But yeah, I think there's

8:37 uneasiness in the

8:39 market. And I think who knows how quickly this gets resolved. But certainly to

8:45 your point, like,

8:46 things have escalated. I was a bit shocked of the retaliation. Like a lot of

8:52 these,

8:52 you know, Iran is basically, I think, send a communication around anyone that

8:57 isn't like these

8:57 oil fields should probably evacuate, which means that they're going to target

9:01 them and

9:01 want to avoid casualties, but they're looking to destroy massive amounts of

9:05 infrastructure.

9:07 There's no amount of like theories of 3D chess of like, what this means, like,

9:12 I don't know if I buy any of those or nor should we necessarily talk about them

9:18 here. But what is

9:20 interesting though is, you know, hyper liquid continues to get a ton of

9:24 traction that continues

9:25 to be a strong theme as a result of all of this. Should we briefly touch on S&P

9:31 perps that I think

9:32 just recently launched and where your take is on that? ZK Sync is the bank

9:40 stack of Ethereum.

9:42 ZK Sync's Pervidium is the only Ethereum secured platform that has purpose

9:46 built for institutions

9:48 that demand privacy, compliance, and full control of their data. ZK Sync

9:52 enables financial institutions

9:54 to thrive in the digital assets economy by launching and monetizing their own

9:59 chains,

10:00 tokenize real world assets, build programmable markets, and settle cross border

10:05 in real time.

10:06 Visit zksync.io to learn more about the bank stack of Ethereum and book a demo.

10:11 As always, investments in blockchain technology involve risk, terms, and

10:18 conditions apply.

10:19 The Blockworks Digital Asset Summit is back in New York, March 24th through 26

10:25 th. We'll have top

10:26 speakers from leading asset managers, financial institutions, DeFi protocols,

10:31 crypto companies,

10:32 and policymakers, all under one roof. Think BlackRock, Coinbase, Robinhood, and

10:37 more.

10:38 Follow the link in today's show notes to buy tickets and make sure to use code

10:41 Empire 200 for $200 off at checkout. Yeah, I mean, super interesting. The S&P

10:50 has been pretty

10:52 forward thinking around this space. I actually did. I worked with the team over

10:57 there to do an

10:58 announcement for they did a tokenized index fund last year in 2025. I think it

11:03 实际推出

11:03 在九月。所以我们宣布我帮他们一起做了那个发布会

11:07 CentralFuge 和

11:08 我记得大概是去年七月的 Janice Henderson。那个资金支持他们

11:16 非常不错。我认为

11:17 现在约有5亿到6亿美元的资产管理规模。因此，显然标普已经在

11:24 思考，比如，

11:24 他们想怎么上链？应该采取什么样的代币化资产

11:28 策略呢

11:29 他们应该做什么？你说的，利用这些 Web3 市场交易 XYZ

11:37 已经真正成为大家关注的焦点，每个

11:44 交易员都在思考

11:45 如何获取全天候、周末依然活跃的市场机会。

11:49 之前没有中央化交易所有真正的流动性来完成这点。

11:50 现在 Hyperliquid

11:54 主导了那个市场的流动性。我是说，我们看到它登上了

11:55 《华尔街日报》头条，甚至

11:59 彭博社，大家都在讨论这个。

12:00 所以很明显，他们为了这一天已经投入了很长时间的努力。

12:04 但看起来非常

12:04 及时，不只是说，嘿，我们要

12:07 推出一个 Web3

12:08 市场，用我们做的某种聚合预言机，

12:13 是的，

12:13 来自我们支付的数据源之一——比如某个交易所。

12:17 而现在，我们将直接与

12:18 标普合作，

12:23 推出官方产品。这对我来说，意味着

12:23 现在，

12:26 Hyperliquid 仍然是一个专业用户产品，也许这意味着

12:27 未来我们可以

12:35 吸引机构参与这些市场交易。

12:35 机构参与还需要做很多 KYC

12:40 还有其它合规工作。

12:41 但这显然是朝那个方向迈出的重要一步，祝贺 Show Crew 和他们团队。

12:45 好的，结束了。

12:46 是的，真的很重要。我很好奇接下来他们的成交量会有多大。

12:49 你如果要预测他们的成交量，比起一些活跃的商品如

12:50 石油、铜、银或金，你觉得

12:54 这个市场会很快超越它们吗？

12:55 不，我是说，你有传统市场，

13:01 如外汇、商品，

13:01 它们交易量更大。我认为这些市场，Hyperliquid 交易量更大。

13:05 我觉得这些市场会反映传统市场的走势，因为它引发了

13:07 兴趣。我确实觉得，有时候你会看到某些

13:11 股票的成交量暴增，它们成为散户的

13:13 热门话题。

13:16 我认为指数市场

13:18 表现会不错，但我预期不会

13:22 显著超越其他市场。

13:23 是的，Hyperliquid 交易价格大约40美元，

13:29 大概有370亿美元的交易余额，市值约90亿美元。我在社交媒体上听到很多讨论，

13:30 有人说其他网络完蛋了，Hyperliquid 坚如磐石。永续合约是杀手级产品。

13:36 但它仍然只占一些网络的

13:36 一小部分。关于 Hyperliquid，存在什么论点？它是否能超越 Solana，

13:40 甚至超过一些其他网络？或者它目前定价合理的理由是什么？

13:41 我是说，如果你看传统交易所的估值倍数，

13:45 并且假设手续费收入就是全部收入，

13:47 虽然我觉得这并不全对，但有人是这么想的，Hyperliquid 和 L2 其实都在倍数上低于传统交易所。

13:54 Secrecy 发布的一些数据我看过了，虽然没深究，但基于数据我猜是对的。

13:55 所以，我认为未来这些市场会继续扩大。

14:04 这些应用会继续增长，很明显

14:05 链上永续合约市场

14:08 提供了优质产品，并将持续增长，

14:08 会持续蚕食中央化交易所的市场份额。

14:18 目前真正的风险是监管问题，

14:18 以及长期影响。

14:24 但这些监管者愿意支持创新，

14:25 所以这风险看来低于以往。

14:29 它们会继续增长，

14:30 当然收入也会增长，目前还没出现

14:36 手续费压缩。

14:38 你的问题是，这对更广泛的网络意味着什么。

14:45 关于更广泛网络方面，

14:46 很有趣，因为应用绝对可能比网络本身更值钱。

14:50 无可置疑，

14:51 Perp.market，Hyperliquid 和一些大应用很可能

14:55 比 Poligon 更值钱，而

14:56 它们的所有成交量都在 Polygon 网络上。

15:03 我认为这种价值逆转将继续，最好的应用会积累更多价值。

15:03 但我不认为 Hyperliquid

15:08 会成为 Solana 的强力竞争者，

15:09 也不太可能覆盖链上所有交易。

15:12 但他们会继续打造

15:14 一个非常强大、优秀的交易和生态产品。

15:19 我给大家一个视角，过去90天内 Hyperliquid 是收入排行榜首，

15:20 总收入达1.4亿美元。第二名是 Toronto 8200万美元，

15:24 然后是 Solana 9000万美元，

15:25 接着是 Ethereum 6000万美元，都是 L1 级别，

15:29 基于这个，Hyperliquid 可能持续主导未来12个月的手续费收入，

15:30 我对 Web3 和那里的活动感到非常乐观。

15:34 所以我不太在意 HyperEVM 的价值，

15:35 主要关心的是，是否有人会继续在这些市场交易，答案很可能是会，

15:41 他们更倾向于在 Hyperliquid 上。

15:43 就我而言，我基于收入略微保守估计，

15:48 但他们表现非常令人印象深刻。

15:49 他们快速推出市场、快速引入流动性，

15:52 从技术角度打造了极佳的产品，思考周到，

15:55 包括费率结构、订单执行机制，

15:58 配对机制都做得很好，

15:58 他们干得真棒，产品优秀，并且会继续增长。

16:02 监管确实是个挑战，

16:02 但像标普这样的机构愿意盖章背书，

16:07 这非常棒。我依然相信，

16:07 你对网络估值的看法是错误的。

16:14 不是说，

16:15 你现在觉得 HT（HTTP）值多少钱？

16:18 告诉我，它现在值多少？它其实没值钱，这个问题很关键，

16:19 因为价值没被设计得那么多。

16:22 我认为 Solana 也没靠低手续费来创造价值。

16:24 但投资这些项目时，我不认为手续费会是主要收入，

16:28 实际上是 MEV，

16:28 REV 指的就是 MEV，

16:33 如果你创建不同的市场，MEV 总会存在，

16:34 总会有人愿意付费区块包含费，

16:40 允许更高利润产品出现。

16:41 我永远不会假设只靠手续费收益。

16:46 长远来看，手续费在总价值中的占比将逐渐减少。

16:48 我也同意你的观点，应用层整体价值

16:51 应该超过 L1。

16:52 但这也意味着 L1 本身的价值，

16:57 应该根据收入来衡量。

16:58 你怎么看待那个代币值钱的理由，或 L1 价值？

17:02 有人说市场看重品牌、财富创造力和名望，

17:02 但我不喜欢用这个理由支撑估值。

17:12 但比如看这张图，我对 Hyperliquid 感到鼓舞，

17:13 收入持续增长，涨幅显著。

17:18 它的市销率

17:19 跟现实没脱节。

17:25 我考虑是否投资它，跟买现实中的东西对比，

17:27 is it, it likely dominates, like if you're over the next 12 months in terms of

17:32 fees,

17:32 just given the, I'm continually very encouraged by hip three and the activity

17:37 you're seeing there.

17:38 So I don't necessarily like would attach that much value to the hyper EVM. Like

17:45 , I actually

17:45 don't necessarily care that much about that. Other than like, do you continue

17:49 to believe that people

17:49 are going to trade these things? And if so, they're likely going to trade on

17:52 hyper liquid.

17:53 And so, yeah, I mean, on a, you know, me, I'm a mid curbing it on a, you know,

18:01 revenue

18:01 sort of basis, but yeah, it's pretty impressive what they've done.

18:05 Yeah, I mean, literally like their ability to launch markets quickly, a lot to

18:10 bootstrap liquidity

18:11 quickly to build a lot as, you know, a really great product from a technical

18:15 perspective in the way

18:16 that they think through, you know, how fees are out, how trades are ordered and

18:20 , you know,

18:21 how people get are able to, how the matching works, like, very clearly, like

18:27 they've done an

18:28 incredible job, you know, great product, it'll continue to grow. There's

18:30 definitely headwinds

18:32 around the regulatory side, but there's people like S&P who are willing to put

18:35 their, you know,

18:36 institutional stamp on it, which is, which is awesome. And I do still continue

18:42 to believe that,

18:43 like, you're wrong about, like, how these, the broader networks get valued.

18:47 Like, it's not a,

18:48 nobody's going to dead. Like, what do you think HTTP is worth today? Right?

18:53 Like, you tell me

18:53 what that what it is worth, but it has no value. It's a relevant question

18:56 because the value crew

18:58 just was not there or designed to do that, right? But, but I think I would

19:04 argue that, like,

19:04 Solana wasn't really designed to grow value either with how low their fees are.

19:08 But yeah, but when you look at the, the composition, like, my, when I invest in

19:15 these

19:16 things, I don't assume fees are going to be the bulk of the revenue. It's

19:18 actually MEV, right?

19:19 So REV, like, collectively, like, if you're creating, like, heterogeneous

19:24 markets,

19:25 it will always allow for MEV, right? There's always going to be someone that

19:29 wants to pay

19:30 for block inclusion, and that allows for higher margin products. In this case,

19:36 like,

19:36 I'm never going to bake my assumption. It just fees being the dominant. In fact

19:40 ,

19:40 over the long-term fees should encompass less and less of a share of how much

19:45 value gets captured

19:46 by the L1. I do also agree with your point. Like, apps should, collectively,

19:51 the apps sitting on

19:52 top of the L1 should be worth more than the L1 itself. But that does mean the L

19:59 1 itself should be

20:00 directly compared to its revenue for, in terms of value, right? And how do you

20:04 think of it through

20:04 the value of, you know, what that token is worth, or what the L1 itself is

20:08 worth?

20:08 I mean, you could argue that a lot of it is, I mean, clearly, the market sees

20:14 value in some sort of

20:15 memetic component and wealth creation and brand and goodwill. I just don't like

20:20 underwriting that.

20:21 But I am, like, if you look at this chart for instance, I am encouraged by

20:24 hyper liquid, you know,

20:25 revenue continues to grow up, grow quite a bit. You know, you have a reasonable

20:33 price to sales,

20:34 like, here that is not totally disconnected from reality, right? When I look at

20:38 ,

20:38 should I actually put a position on this thing or not versus go buy something

20:41 in the real world,

20:42 像七十亿市场价值一样，知道吗，市值不断增长且相当

20:46 有趣，像是，

20:48 这正是我想说的，我想邀请那些无摩擦团队

20:55 进行了大量

20:55 关于评估这些东西的思考。我不是说你一定要

20:59 从它的角度看，

21:00 但我确实认为这是一种推动力，说好吧，我需要相信什么

21:05 才能让这个东西最终产生收入？如果你

21:05 没有捕获那么多收入，

21:09 那么所有关于模式的假设讨论，

21:11 你知道，如果你无法累积价值，

21:16 那就意味着，

21:18 这个产品的质量，社区，所有这些

21:23 大家谈论的东西都有所体现。

21:23 因此……有很多技术被高价出售

21:34 或价值高昂，

21:35 但它们并不累积大量价值，对吧？但它们

21:43 允许产生大量价值……

21:44 举个好例子？我说，显然我们

21:50 谈过HTTP，

21:51 对吧？但有大量HTTP，没人曾

21:55 赋予它价值。

21:56 它们提供有用的服务。就像公共产品一样，

22:00 你知道……

22:01 嗯，有很多公共产品，

22:04 它们都有一定价值，对吧？

22:05 还有很多……我不是想点名具体企业，

22:07 但你我都知道有很多企业以300倍收入估值出售，

22:08 因为这些收入，

22:14 它们让别人累积价值，

22:16 或者它们给别人带来协同效应，

22:19 对买家来说，

22:20 我们在加密领域看到过这种情况，也在AI中看到过，

22:23 它们本身不累积价值，

22:24 我们行业中，AI领域的一些深度技术公司

22:28 本身并不是好生意，

22:30 但它们是很好的技术，使其他

22:35 企业能建立在其基础上。

22:37 这有价值。那价值是多少？是摩尔定律的价值吗？

22:41 是网络价值吗？

22:43 就是某种说法，叫做价值的倍数，

22:47 和节点数量或建立的价值有关？

22:48 我不确定是否如此，

22:53 如何准确评估它们我认为还很不确定。

22:54 但我认为确定的是，

22:58 给L1分配收入倍数是错误的思考方式。

22:58 当然，我说，

23:03 你我可以有不同看法。我想到了铁路。

23:04 不，我们不必事事同意。不是，不是。铁路是一个好例子。

23:09 从历史上看，谁累积了最多价值？

23:11 不是铁路，而是连接的城市，以及

23:13 基于此建立的各种价值和服务。

23:19 我觉得这就是一件事，

23:23 我不会去做空L1，因为加密市场完全不理性。

23:24 所以，我觉得做空它们没什么意义。

23:26 但我也不会参与其中，我更愿意投资

23:27 建立在这些网络上的应用，

23:30 这些应用从中获益。像，回到手续费，

23:30 平均交易手续费在以太坊L1上明显下降。

23:34 如果你以手续费高来分析的话，

23:35 其实这就是G-Mons悖论，手续费应该继续降下来以支持更多交易，

23:40 等等。

23:41 但可能在未来五到十年内，

23:44 除非L1多元化，否则我认为它们不会累积太多价值。

23:45 MEV在增长，

23:48 但我们来说一下tempo，我认为我们不应该

23:49 继续理论上讨论价销比、收入，

23:54 谁在乎呢？终究，

23:55 市场相信有买有卖在那个价格上，

24:00 所以我们不会反对。tempo很有趣，因为我听到很多人

24:01 都认为稳定币转账本身不会带来太多价值，

24:07 价值在于其他由稳定币即时结算和支付等

24:09 支持的事情。

24:12 那么，为什么不谈谈tempo呢？你可以给我们介绍一下，

24:15 然后……好吧。

24:22 我想现在每个人都知道tempo，显然它是paradigm和stripe的合作，

24:23 目标是打造以支付为中心或优先的区块链。

24:29 他们的做法有几个方面，还有技术细节，

24:31 嵌入链上的某些产品。

24:33 我认为关键点是，

24:34 它们基本保留大部分区块容量给稳定币转账，

24:37 并降低非稳定币转账的优先级。

24:38 还有费用体系，他们采用动态收费，

24:41 大力鼓励稳定币转账。理论是，

24:42 不是权限控制，

24:48 而是通过经济激励，让大家

24:49 想在链上做的唯一事情是支付，

24:54 基本上就是。

24:54 它昨天刚上线，

25:00 刚上线十分钟，就出现了一个和爱泼斯坦相关的迷因币，

25:01 也许这就是加密的常态。

25:07 但很明显，他们设计的初衷就是支付，

25:08 他们和Stripe、Bridge、Privy等生态合作，

25:15 全部围绕着，

25:15 怎么让用户使用链上支付这一套方案。

25:21 昨天上线，他们还发布了MPP，我记不清全称，

25:22 叫机器支付协议，

25:26 支持用稳定币、卡片或多种支付方式，

25:29 希望成为开放标准，

25:32 用于代理经济活动支付。

25:33 任何人理论上都可以扩展，

25:39 但治理现在几乎都掌握在tempo手中，

25:40 还不是完全开源项目。

25:46 不过我期待未来会开源，

25:47 它直接和一些其他支付协议竞争，

25:55 就是这种代理经济商业标准，例如X402，

25:56 Coinbase背后支持，

26:00 OpenAI和基础模型厂商也有各自标准，

26:00 谷歌也推出自己的标准，

26:06 市面上有很多这类标准。

26:07 这也挺有意思，恰逢大家都关注代理经济活动。

26:10 但说归说，这回到了你最初的问题，

26:11 就是，tempo本身是否累积价值？

26:13 你问的是它以50亿美元估值融资，

26:15 但手续费和其他经济价值是否由其他Stripe产品、

26:19 Bridge、Privy产生，

26:20 而不是tempo本身，除非它发币。

26:24 你怎么看？

26:25 我觉得光靠稳定币撑不起那个估值，

26:30 是它带来了附加值服务。

26:30 它今天值50亿吗？可能不值。

26:33 它对Stripe有用吗？是的，提供更好服务给客户。

26:34 有趣的是，他们有很强的资源，

26:38 一上线就有Visa合作，

26:39 还有好多生态伙伴，

26:44 比如我们的设计合作伙伴Visa已经扩展MPP支持卡支付，

26:45 Stripe也支持卡和其他支付方式，

26:48 Lightspark扩展支持比特币支付和闪电网络。

26:49 我们这里详细讨论过这些，

26:55 他们是在一顿饭时谈的，很有分量的合作伙伴，

26:55 可惜还没启动起来。

27:00 我很好奇他们能走多远。

27:01 我看到一张图表说X402支付活动，

27:07 几个月前很火，但现在活动减少了，

27:08 基本上没有真正的X402活动。

27:14 有些人在X402上启动项目，看起来像洗盘活动，

27:16 有人以为最终会有一定基础价值和代币价值积累。

27:20 like, you know,

27:20 the tempo level. And so it's not quite an open source, you know, project yet,

27:24 but in terms of like,

27:26 you know, actually being able to have, you know, other people unpack the way it

27:30 works. But I think

27:32 I expect they'll do that over time. But that competes, you know, kind of

27:36 directly with, you

27:37 know, some of these other protocols are these, these kind of standards, it's

27:40 really a standard

27:40 for, you know, agent economic commerce, things like X402, which, you know,

27:45 Coinbase is obviously

27:46 behind. And, you know, open AI and the foundational models all launched their

27:50 own Google launched

27:52 their own. And so there's a lot of these people kind of have these standards

27:54 out there. And so,

27:56 you know, that's also, I think, somewhat interesting at the time, when everyone

27:59 's thinking about

27:59 agentic, agentic activity, but all of that to be said, that brings it back to

28:04 your original

28:05 question, which is like, okay, so this is an interesting piece of the, you know

28:09 , stripe,

28:10 you know, pie, right, but does tempo itself a crew value, right? And that was

28:16 kind of what

28:16 you're asking because it raised at a $5 billion valuation. But will the fees

28:21 and all of the economic

28:23 value accrual be done by other strike products, or, you know, other bridge

28:28 products or privy,

28:29 not tempo itself, unless maybe launches a token. So I don't know, what's your

28:33 perspective there?

28:35 Yeah, I don't think like stablecoins along carry the boat to justify that

28:42 valuation. It's what

28:43 it allows, like value added services on top. So is it worth $5 billion today?

28:50 Probably not.

28:51 Is it going to be useful in the area for stripe? Yes, you know, providing

28:58 better services to their

28:59 customer base? What was interesting is, I mean, part of part of the benefit

29:03 here is the muscle

29:04 that they have. I mean, out of the gate, they have visa collaborating with them

29:07 . We have a bunch

29:08 of other ecosystem partners. You know, I quote, for example, our design partner

29:14 visa has already

29:15 extended MPP to support card based payments on their network. Stripe has

29:19 extended it to support

29:20 cards while it's another payment methods through their platform. Lightspark has

29:24 also extended for

29:25 Bitcoin payments or the lightning network. And I think like that's, you know,

29:30 we've talked about

29:30 it here at length, which is like, this is kind of like when we were at lunch

29:33 with a very impressive

29:34 set of partners and never got off the ground. Obviously, I am very curious

29:40 about what how much

29:41 traction they get. I forget, but I saw a chart around like, was X402 payments,

29:46 or the activity

29:47 there's like kind of been declining. And it was all the rage a couple months

29:52 back. And now there

29:53 has been that much activity. I am curious. There's been basically no organic X

29:59 402 activity ever.

30:02 So there was like some people, there were some like people who were like

30:05 launching

30:06 on top of X402 that if you look, it looks like watch trading and people thought

30:10 maybe there would be

30:11 some, you know, base or X402, like, you know, value, you know, token value acc

30:15 rual to at some point.

30:16 但X402基本上从未有过真正的活跃。嗯，无论如何。

30:19 是的。是的，我在这里看到累计统计是7540万笔交易，24

30:27 总交易额为2.

30:29 少于10万买家。当你看到这些数据时，我不知道你们

30:36 是否

30:36 投资过像Gente Comm这样的项目，这是一个关键的叙述，

30:39 对吧？关于

30:41 你知道，人们会兴奋。现在我听到的共同点是

30:45 就是，

30:45 区块链不是为人类打造的，而是为机器人设计的。

30:48 你知道，

30:49 这是加密货币在AI时代努力保持相关性的尝试。但你怎么看？

30:52 14. 我实际上确实认为启动一个代理是有意义的，给它，

30:55 I actually do think it will it makes sense to spin up an agent and give it, you

31:01 你知道，

31:01 让代理使用稳定币，当它无所谓我看到什么的时候，我

31:06 是认同这个

31:06 叙述的。我认为这相当真实。但你会将其归因于——这只是

31:11 X402吗？

31:12 就是因为用例不够，人们没有考虑

31:18 到它。

31:19 今天还没有代理到商业的存在。就是说今天根本没有代理到商业。

31:23 24. 大家都在谈论代理到商业，但它实际上并不存在，

31:23 Like it is like we are all talking about a jump to commerce. It does not exist,

31:26 是吧？

31:27 这并不意味着——当然不完全是零，但基本可以忽略不计，

31:30 对吧？而且今天所有的代理到商业活动

31:34 主要是通过

31:35 传统渠道，使用Stripe的API进行的，对吗？那这是否

31:39 意味着未来不会存在？

31:40 不，不是那个意思。但X402、谷歌、OpenAI、Anthropic以及现在的MPP，

31:45 所有这些标准都存在，

31:46 但还没有人达成统一标准，

31:52 对吧？未来需要就标准达成某种共识，

31:53 才能继续构建，

31:57 你知道，更有经济价值的东西，以及相关产品。

31:58 所以我们得看到其中一个标准最终胜出，对吧？我们

32:03 也得看到代理变得更好，因为代理现在在很多方面还不错。

32:08 但近期

32:08 我们看到的活动主要是企业级用例，

32:14 也就是非常高级的

32:16 RPA，对吧？就是自动化工作，或者是，

32:20 你知道，帮你我在研究上助力，或者是我们的一些工作流，

32:21 但它实际上并不是

32:27 一种我们能用来做什么的方式——我意思是，有很多人已经用Perplexity

32:28 推出了产品，

32:34 还有其他人推出产品，围绕“哦，我们能用代理支付做点什么吗？”

32:36 这些产品现在仍然很笨重。现实是，

32:39 因为现在需要很多批准流程，

32:40 我通过Perplexity买卫生纸反而比我自己

32:43 打开亚马逊App买耗时更多，

32:44 所以用户体验还不佳。另外，

32:49 从很多方面说，人们愿意购买东西，

32:49 他们想买东西。

32:53 所以，

32:54 我认为你之前提到的那个故事，更好的故事，

32:58 并不是关于代理是否被商家接受，

32:59 而是，是否存在一种经济体，

33:02 超出人与商家之间的支付，或企业与商家之间的支付，

33:04 这是全新的，

33:10 并且是由代理完成的？我认为这是故事。那个市场还很遥远，

33:10 现在还有很多人在围绕它构建，

33:14 但我们还没做成交易，

33:15 因为那感觉太遥远，未来如何发展也不明朗，

33:22 我们在谈论中，见过创业者，试图

33:24 明智对待它，但相较于市场的热度

33:30 和这些公司的估值，风险回报比还没到位，

33:32 因为那市场根本不存在。是的，我仔细看过一笔交易，

33:36 这个人离开了一个大牌卡网络，

33:37 说：“我觉得这会是大事，我想自己做一个。”我没投，

33:41 因为我认为分销为王。

33:43 而且我觉得Tempo做得很好，

33:48 他们开局就有令人印象深刻的

33:49 资本和分销伙伴，这并不意味着

33:52 没有别人机会，但竞争很难，

33:54 资源丰富，人力资本密集，出道即有大量伙伴，

33:58 但我们拭目以待。我想，有项目早期找到你说过，“嗨，我们要基于Tempo构建”吗？

33:59 这个数据很有趣，比如之前绝大多数项目纯粹是以太坊，

34:03 然后重心往Solana偏移，

34:04 现在你看到Hype、BBM这样的生态在兴起。你见过重大变化或有人来问，

34:09 “我想基于Tempo建，这是趋势吗？”还是大部分是闭源，不真正构建？

34:11 我们没看到太多新创业者，当然有人，我昨晚晚宴坐旁边的就是一家最大DeFi协议的创始人。

34:14 他们没公开宣布，

34:14 但已经在那里部署了一段时间，会做些工作。

34:18 很多人在那里部署。Tempo也是，他们只是未宣布。

34:20 但我认为他们已将此写进他们的宣传资料，

34:23 他们会像其他商业导向的策略一样，

34:24 造就赢家。赢家带来流动性，流动性聚集

34:29 产品就更好。

34:29 但目前还没见到太多新开发者项目尝试融资建这块。

34:33 肯定会随时间出现。但它的业务模式，主要是支付，

34:34 他们有很明确的定位，

34:39 不关心最新的DeFi创业者想建什么，

34:39 这不是他们的生意，他们明确说过，

34:50 并做了相关设计决策。

34:51 因此，你会看到新创业者越来越少，

34:54 主要聚焦一个用例，几乎只聚焦这个用例，

34:56 近乎完全依赖Stripe的业务发展成败。

35:01 未来可能更广，涉及推荐和流动性，

35:02 流动性和与合作伙伴同链是一件好事，

35:06 但目前仍然取决于Stripe。

35:07 是的。关于时间线有很多观点，我们时间不够深入讨论，但除Stripe股东外，

35:12 你认为谁将受益？

35:13 我也想知道谁将从Tempo成功中获益，

35:18 谁又将失去最大？

35:18 我能想到输家，但很感兴趣。Rob，作为新成员，

35:22 你总喜欢让我说辣话，所以，

35:23 我基本不和谁抢前十秒，看你来掌控。

35:28 我安于本分，不搞炒作。

35:28 我就像条老狗，观点已稳定，

35:33 就像那条热水池里的人，我只关心自己领域，世界再变我不动摇。

35:35 但说真的，

35:38 我和你对这投资很有共识——Codex，

35:38 顶尖团队，非常犀利，观点鲜明，

35:41 他们洞见独特，但同时也非常聚焦，

35:42 你可以说他们正在与Tempo竞争，

35:46 我能想到其他团队，但你怎看？

35:47 Codex这边的故事显然不止这些，还包括合作关系。

35:52 他们今天宣布了转型，你可能没看见，

35:54 现在专注于外汇业务，

35:57 他们今天推出了新品牌，

35:58 每月外汇成交额几亿，并且快速增长，

36:01 属于不同业务方向。

36:02 我也很喜欢你提到的Nann和Momo。

36:05 输家方面，

36:07 最主要的竞争者是谁？有专门支付团队的，

36:14 支付赛道竞争最激烈。

36:15 Solana 有专门的支付团队，

36:18 Monad也有很强的支付团队，团队成员实力很强，Raj来自Visa，

36:19 Portal负责运营。

36:25 还有Circle和Arc，尚未推出，

36:27 你可以讨论是否——

36:32 And they don't care

36:33 if, like, the latest DeFi, you know, person or latest DeFi entrepreneur wants

36:37 to build there.

36:38 Like, that is not their business. And they've explicitly said that, right? And

36:41 they've made

36:42 design decisions to do that, right? And so if that's the case, like, you're

36:46 just going to see

36:46 the less new net new entrepreneurs. And what it is going to be, though, is it's

36:49 going to be

36:50 focused on this one use case, really focused on this one use case. And it's

36:56 probably at least in

36:56 the near term, it'll ever die based on the BD emotion of Stripe, right?

37:00 Eventually,

37:00 maybe it'll be broader. And there's, you know, referrals and there's liquidity,

37:03 sort of like liquidity, it's liquidity and being on the same chain as the

37:08 partner,

37:08 you know, is a good thing, right? But but today it's, it's, it's going to live

37:12 or die based on Stripe.

37:13 Yeah. Who, um, there's a lot of opinions on the timeline that we don't have

37:20 enough time to

37:21 discuss, but who stands to benefit other than Stripe, equity holders, I would

37:27 argue,

37:27 who stands to benefit and who stands to lose the most in a world where Tempo is

37:33 successful.

37:34 I can think of who loses, but I'm curious. You always go with this podcast Rob

37:41 since you're

37:42 the newest member here. You just want me to say the spicy things. So people,

37:49 you know,

37:51 I sort of stopped competing against who's going to get the first 10 seconds

37:55 clip of like, you know,

37:56 that's your role. I'm, I'm happy in my lane. Just I don't deliver that. I'm

38:01 like an old dog,

38:02 man. You know, my takes are watched down like, you know, I'm, you're like that,

38:07 that meme of like

38:08 the guy in the hot tub, you know, like, I'm bothered moisturizing my lane as a

38:14 world blows up now.

38:15 Um, but yeah, like, who, I mean, you and I share all, maybe all stuff. You and

38:20 I share this investment

38:21 present codex. First, you know, it is top of mind here. Very sharp guys. A lot

38:27 of really,

38:29 very opinionated as well. I think they have really unique insights, but they,

38:34 again,

38:34 super specific on this, like, um, you could argue they are now going to compete

38:41 against Tempo,

38:42 right? And I can think of others, but yeah, how do you think about though?

38:47 Yeah, the codex guys, obviously there's more to that story in terms of like the

38:52 partnerships.

38:52 They've actually pivoted. They announced it today. You probably haven't seen it

38:55 , but

38:55 they're now entirely focused on Fx business. Um, and so they, they kind of

39:00 launched their

39:00 rebrand today. Um, and they're actually doing a few hundred million a month in

39:05 Fx, but, uh, right

39:05 now, uh, so, um, they're, uh, and that's growing quickly. So kind of a

39:09 different business. Uh,

39:11 and I'd like to your point, I'm big fans of, of how Nann and, and Momo. Um, I

39:16 think on the loser side,

39:17 obviously, like, you know, who's competing the most? Like who has dedicated

39:21 payments teams,

39:22 it's competing on payments, right? Solana has a big dedicated payments team. Uh

39:26 , Monad has a

39:28 debt, big dedicated payments team and they have very good people there. The Raj

39:32 who, um,

39:32 came from Visa, uh, and then Portal, uh, runs that business for them. Um, you

39:37 know, there's a,

39:38 then there's kind of like the, it's like Circle Arc, right? Which hasn't

39:41 launched yet and there's,

39:43 um, you know, then there's the, you know, you can debate whether or not it's

39:46 我不太明白这一点

39:47 像Plasma或Stable，或者这些家伙其实并不想做支付。

39:51 他们

39:51 只是想成为

39:55 一种，比如说，

39:56 你知道，Stable币链可能其实比其他两个更受青睐，

39:59 那另外两个

40:01 人们谈得较少，但他们做了更多的工作。

40:05 Polygon也在里面，还有，嗯，

40:07 还有，嗯，不，嗯，Tron。是的。然后有一个是Strap

40:13 投资的，嗯，

40:14 之前我忘了名字，但它是PayPal，从加密领域出来的，

40:21 现在还在？嗯，这些实际上就是，嗯，就是

40:22 Polygon，不，不，

40:27 Polygon从Strap挖走了一个叫John Egan的人。是的。哦，Paper。

40:29 是的，是的。但是，

40:33 嗯，嗯，实际上Polygon今天做了很多支付量，

40:35 他们拥有

40:40 很多机构支付合作伙伴。现在他们直接控股，

40:40 他们进行了那个

40:44 收购，或者说是两次收购，大概是一月初或十二月，

40:45 这让他们

40:51 成为一个

40:52 完全垂直整合的支付体系，对吧？这基本上就是

40:55 Tempo，

40:56 Stripe和Bridge正在发生的事。所以，你知道，他们将会是

40:59 真正的竞争者。

41:00 Solana显然采取了稍微不同的方式，因为，嗯，

41:04 他们开始了，

41:05 我认为主导了一些风险投资交易。他们肯定在试图，

41:08 持续投入资金，

41:10 并且，嗯，你知道，努力让合适的人在他们平台上构建，嗯，

41:15 但他们，

41:16 他们不一定拥有，知道吧，现在所有完全垂直整合的体系。

41:20 嗯，

41:22 所以，这就是竞争环境，对吧？这些人显然是

41:25 会，

41:26 担心Tempo的。嗯，我觉得就像你说的那样，

41:32 好吧，

41:33 如果他们真的成功了，会发生什么？谁获益？

41:37 好吧，

41:38 显然Stripe的股东会受益。理论上，

41:43 Tempo的股东

41:44 也会受益，或者持有你的代币。嗯，我认为大量的经济活动

41:50 在EVM链上发生大概对整个加密都有利。

41:51 这在某种意义上是

41:56 涨潮，

41:57 但可能对Ethereum的好处没那么大，反而对

42:01 Tempo更有利，但这并不

42:02 会对Ethereum不好。如果更多企业的经济活动发生在

42:06 Tempo上，在我看来，

42:07 也许这对专注支付的人或那些，嗯，二层链不利。我不认为

42:12 这会对Ethereum主链有坏处，

42:13 因为那本来就不会是进行大量传统支付的地方。

42:17 对吧，而且

42:19 因此我其实认为，

42:23 我是说，我认为涨潮会提升所有船只，这正在

42:25 Rosie这边发生。

42:29 这一直是Rosie的情况，更多活动提升所有船只。

42:30 所以，

42:34 如果某人赢了生态的一部分，利惠于所有人，我

42:36 实际认为

42:39 我现在的态度有点更激进。我觉得，嗯，你知道，

42:39 这通常是弱者的立场，对吧？

42:45 就是说，哦，

42:47 这很好。但现实是，我认为

42:50 交易量更集中，即使有互操作性，即使

42:50 你知道，嗯，用户通过Tempo进入可能能去到

42:54 Ethereum，嗯，

43:01 也许吧，我不确定。

43:02 但我们且看，我认为

43:07 对于公司来说，无论你是Solana还是Layer Zero还是Stripe，倾向于拥有那个用户，

43:09 而且如果不必，通常不会跟

43:16 其他人共享。嗯，不过这只是我的观点。另外，

43:17 我之前提到过Stellar，因为我今天其实看到Stellar

43:24 和Polygon

43:24 绝对做了，目前在实际支付量方面做得最多。

43:29 你知道，

43:30 Solana也在那，但，嗯，他们刚刚开始获得很多

43:33 合作伙伴。

43:34 虽然这些合作还没有真正规模化，但，嗯，

43:37 如果越来越多

43:38 我们日常做的事情发生在链上，

43:41 会有更多企业上链，

43:42 会有更多现实世界资产，会有更多代币化资产，会有更多

43:47 稳定币，

43:49 会有更多，嗯，新的创新产品出现，因为区块链使这些成为可能，

43:53 对吧？我认为很清楚，没

43:55 有哪一条链会赢得所有活动，

44:00 对吧？我认为这很短视，没什么意思。

44:00 我们最终可能会拥有一个完全抽象化的路由系统，

44:06 所有这些人都会接入，

44:07 给你跨所有链的最佳价格，

44:15 这些不同的链也会有。嗯，事实是，如果，

44:17 假设Tempo真的

44:19 非常成功，掌控了所有像跨境支付，

44:21 对吧？嗯，

44:25 跨境支付发生后，支付资金会流向某人。

44:26 如果是最终用户，那终端用户会有一个钱包，那个钱包会

44:30 想办法花钱、存钱和做所有这些其他事情。嗯，

44:31 你知道，今天的设计决定不是为了服务那个生态，

44:37 是为了服务跨境支付生态而设计的。

44:38 是的，嗯，我觉得这回到我之前说的，

44:41 你可能一年前我在Meru刚起步时说过，

44:42 更有价值的东西，

44:46 会归属于如Clark那样的应用，新银行那样的世界，

44:47 他们可以选择其下的基础设施，

44:51 来降低服务成本。

44:51 嗯，我认为

44:55 时间一次又一次证明，在加密领域，一旦出现新玩家，

44:56 就会给基础设施层带来更多竞争，

45:01 这一直有益于最终客户。

45:02 呃，无论如何，对吧？当Solana介入并吸引了大量DeFi

45:06 活动离开了Ethereum，

45:07 这激励了Ethereum社区，意识到“我们得振作了”，

45:10 因为我们被打败了。我觉得

45:11 Tempo加入到类似Hyperliquid的全流程中，

45:15 明确地告诉Solana领导层，

45:16 他们在Perps上犯了错。现在你有了Bulk，

45:20 作为对Hyperliquid的回应，然后就在这周上线了。

45:22 这是我在关注的事情，

45:26 但我认为基础设施层的竞争对上层应用来说很好，

45:28 也最终对消费者来说很好，因为他们能接触更多产品。

45:31 他们不关心那个路由到哪里，对吧？我的意思是，

45:33 回头看HTTPS，你关心的只是，“天哪，我可以用Gmail了，

45:37 不只是Hotmail，这是对我有利的”，

45:39 线上购物变得更安全了。

45:42 所以，我的意思是，我更倾向于投资并坐落于上层，因为基础设施层的竞争非常激烈。

45:43 总体来说，对应用来说是好事，对开发者来说是好事，

45:47 对客户来说也是好事，他们将从更容易、更便利的体验中受益，

45:47 无论他们尝试使用什么稳定币或加密产品。

45:51 是的，我是说，链上对消费者无疑是更好，

45:52 对吧？消费者才是最终的赢家。

45:57 是的，我还有五分钟，我正要跟一个律师打个昂贵的电话，

45:59 不想迟到。但我们这周内容还有几点要说。

46:03 我最喜欢的部分，Kraken，我们聊了很久，他们刚出来说

46:03 要推迟IPO计划。我觉得他们没明说。

46:07 有一篇报道说了这事，

46:08 我不确定这是否属实。

46:11 我认识那边团队很熟，我认为，

46:12 我不认为这会是个重大阻碍。是的。

46:15 我觉得他们筹最后一轮资金的时候，很多人，

46:16 里面有不少特殊目的载体，还有很多人进来了。

46:19 是一笔大融资，很多人都认定

46:20 很可能会有IPO事件。嗯，我觉得没人预计是在今年，

46:23 大多数人估计是在未来三年内的某个时间。

46:24 我倾向于认为

46:31 事情仍在按计划进行，

46:33 不管宏观经济状况怎样，

46:36 他们已经在为IPO做准备很长时间了，

46:37 一直在推出很好的产品。

46:41 我觉得很可能明年实现IPO，

46:42 除非出现重大市场灾难，我觉得

46:47 明年很可能会有Reddit的IPO。

46:47 是的，我仍然觉得今年有可能。

46:51 对，就这点来说，还有其它吗？比如，

46:52 我们看到了BTC的巨大波动。还有别的消息吗？

46:56 今年可能有很多人会来，嗯，没定数，

46:58 这取决于市场，要市场稳定，

47:01 IPO市场，突然因为伊朗战争又动荡了，

47:06 然后…

47:07 I don't want to be late for. But there's just a couple of things where we get

47:10 the content of the

47:10 week. My favorite part, uh, Kraken, we've talked about a length. They just came

47:14 out saying that

47:15 they're delaying IPO plans. I think so they didn't, they didn't say it. Well,

47:19 there was a coin.

47:20 There's a coin that's article that said it. Um, I don't know if that's actually

47:24 true or not.

47:25 And I will say that, you know, I know the team there pretty well. And I think,

47:29 um, uh, I don't

47:31 expect this to be a material, uh, bump in the road for that. Yeah. I think when

47:36 they were raising

47:36 the last round, a lot of there was certainly like a lot of SPVs, a lot of

47:40 people that came in. It

47:41 was a big round. A lot of them were kind of looking at like, Hey, there's,

47:44 there's a likely

47:44 going to be an IPO event. Uh, I don't think anyone underwrote this year. I

47:48 think most people assumed

47:49 it was going to be like, uh, within the next three years kind of thing. And I

47:52 would probably think

47:53 that that continues to be on track. Um, you know, irrespective of like macro

47:58 conditions and whatnot,

47:59 like they've been, they've been like in this IPO readiness track for quite a

48:02 bit of time and

48:03 they continue to ship really good products. And so I, I think it happens within

48:07 probably next year.

48:08 Um, unless there's some like major kind of catastrophic market event, I think

48:12 they could

48:12 probably be a Reddit IPO next year. Yeah. I, I, um, I still think this year is

48:18 possible. So, um, yeah.

48:20 Are there, are there on this point, are there other, uh, in the docket? Like,

48:23 uh, I think we saw

48:24 it just a huge wave loss from this bitco. Is there anything else that's coming

48:27 on?

48:27 There's a bunch of people who might come this year. Uh, I think nobody's

48:31 decided for sure. I think

48:32 it depends a little bit. The markets probably need to stabilize like, like the

48:36 IPO market,

48:36 all of a sudden kind of shot again with the, the war in Iran, right? And so,

48:40 你知道，

48:40 风险市场回来了，风险就是风险。你不会看到好的

48:44 IPO，更别提，呃，

48:47 你知道，有加密货币的那种。你可能也不想同时去做

48:51 同时

48:52 Open AI 和 SpaceX 也在进行中。所以你可能想避开。

48:57 你

48:57 可能你的窗口就是，知道吧，算是接下来的三到六个月，或者

49:02 否则你想

49:02 推迟到明年。但我得说，很多人

49:05 我确实认为很多人想要

49:06 在下次选举之前退出。是的，是的，我们应该，嗯，不，我们是

49:13 我们说的是，

49:14 我们的内部政治专家。我们下周的 DAS 节目再谈这个，

49:17 我非常

49:18 期待。我们也应该聊聊这对加密货币意味着什么。呃，

49:23 如果战争继续

49:24 你知道，支持率下降，比如，

49:27 众议院会有不同的

49:28 变动。这对清晰度意味着什么，我还有很多话要说，

49:31 不过，

49:32 你现在看 Polywracker，它很清楚地

49:35 预测了

49:36 他们认为中期选举会发生什么。是的。这让你担心吗？不，

49:42 这也是

49:44 中期选举的常态，对吧？比如，众议院几乎肯定会翻盘。

49:47 参议院也有可能。没人觉得参议院会有悬念，

49:49 但现在有了。

49:51 嗯，我们拭目以待。我觉得第一大关注点是

49:53 战争的后续影响，

49:56 还有战争最终会持续多久，说实话。是的，是的。

49:57 说到这个，顺便说一下，

50:00 在我们进入本周内容之前，嗯，Token 被取消了。我觉得很多大会也

50:03 取消了，

50:07 我觉得 Token 新加坡还是会举办，但，

50:08 你可以预期，机票费用

50:12 会大幅上涨。

50:13 真是疯狂，价格飙升。我希望你，

50:19 希望你提前订了这些会议的机票。

50:20 我知道你和我

50:23 都会去参加你们举办的一个保密地点的活动，

50:24 但，嗯，

50:27 我很庆幸我提前订了机票，因为现在价格看起来，

50:28 真挺贵的。

50:32 我机票已定好去摩纳哥看你了。所以，放心。

50:32 你

50:39 有沙发，伙计。知道吧，嗯，好吧。这有点，风险地缘政治方面，

50:40 又要继续聊了，

50:46 我觉得我们保持得还不错，

50:47 不是，

50:51 没谈太多，嗯，本周内容是什么？

50:52 两件事。第一，很明显，就是三月疯狂。

50:54 也就是大学篮球季，

50:59 一年中最有趣的时光之一。

51:04 三月疯狂是什么？

51:04 不，你不是认真的。我不会让你，

51:06 我不会让你那样。嗯，

51:12 三月疯狂，你知道，显然那是我的专长。然后，嗯，

51:13 你是巴基州人吗？啊，是的，俄亥俄州的巴基粉丝。

51:18 他们拿了八号种子，

51:22 所以我们，

51:23 这是一所橄榄球队学校，不是篮球学校，但我们

51:27 靠看，

51:27 篮球队没啥好赛季，看情况吧。嗯，然后，

51:31 你知道，

51:33 我得回归我的恐怖电影根基。有部电影叫《Ready

51:37 or Not》，其实是一部很有趣的，

51:38 关于一个女人，

51:44 她嫁入了一个家庭。结果这个家族有个挺奇怪的传统，

51:45 需要，呃，

51:50 牺牲新娘，

51:51 她最终

51:56 打败了家族，没有被牺牲。但是它的续集

51:58 明天上映。很有趣，是部很酷的，

52:01 动作恐怖片。

52:02 当天上映，所以你会去电影院看电影，

52:05 爆米花之类的。

52:07 哦，是的。去的地方有老式鸡尾酒，

52:10 我想我会喝一杯老式，可能还会吃爆米花或者，

52:11 也许吃个汉堡。如果你周五想去的话，我觉得

52:17 有很多好选择，

52:18 你如果想从 Drag and Fly 飞回去，你基本上

52:21 有了个如何谈论恐怖片的蓝图，怎么评价老式鸡尾酒，

52:22 呃，

52:26 我是说，你应该知道老式。是的，我知道，

52:26 现在市场知道了。

52:30 所以我觉得这档播客，如果你想从 Drag and Fly 飞回去，

52:32 这里有很多入门知识，

52:38 一些线索，

52:40 你学到的，能表现出你准备好了。

52:43 我本周内容，还是老样子，有点无聊。嗯，我开始读卡尔·马龙的书，

52:44 《Born to Be Wired》。

52:47 真是太棒了，我一直想读这本书。我之前读过泰德·特纳的书，

52:48 显然两本书互相关联。

52:51 这本书非同凡响，

52:52 是个关于有线电视行业整合的迷人故事。

52:57 当然，他们现在有了自由媒体集团。我知道你多爱F1，他们买下了F1，

52:58 在我看来是一次

53:02 非常棒的投资，但这本书告诉你，

53:03 他们是如何铺设，

53:08 网线的，先是有线电视，再是光纤，

53:10 自然有了互联网等等。

53:14 这是个非常有趣的故事，

53:15 书名是《Born to Be Wired》。

53:20 我已经读到一半了，几天前开始读的，

53:20 真的是，真的非常好。推荐给你。

53:23 好的，我会去看看。那么下周，

53:24 DAS，我们会现场录制。

53:28 是的，非常有趣。大事件。

53:29 也是 Yano 的大回归。

53:33 是的，没错，没错。

53:34 会很棒的，伙计。我很期待。

53:38 如果你们在纽约，

53:39 告诉我们。这大概是 Yano 会提醒大家赶紧买票的时候了，

53:42 DAS 门票，20分钟后涨价，我觉得差不多卖光了。

53:43 卖光，卖光了。

53:49 会是个很棒的活动，如果你在附近，告诉我们，

53:49 很期待和大家线下见面。

53:54 好的，下周见，伙计们。

53:54 And it'll be Yano's big comeback. Come back. Yes. That's right. That's right.

53:59 That's

53:59 going to be fun, man. I'm excited for that. And, uh, if, if you guys are in New

54:02 York,

54:03 let us know. Uh, this is probably the time where Yano would be doing a plug to

54:06 get your tickets to

54:07 Dass. Prices are going to go up like in 20 minutes. I think it's almost sold

54:10 out. Sold out, sold out.

54:12 It's going to be a great event. Um, if you're in the area, let us know and

54:16 excited to hang out with

54:17 you guys in person. Cool. All right. All right. See you next week, guys.

0:00 Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or

0:05 products.

0:05 This podcast is for informational purposes only, and the views expressed by

0:09 anyone on the show

0:11 are solely their opinions, not financial advice or necessarily the views of

0:16 block works. Our hosts,

0:17 guests, and the block works team may hold positions in the companies, funds, or

0:21 projects discussed.

0:27 Monitoring the situation. Say, at least. Why don't we just start there?

0:31 Probably market analysis opening a bar in New York.

0:33 Look, it's in DC. It's in DC. There you go. I'm going to DC to monitor the

0:40 situation next

0:41 time. When is it opening, by the way? I think it's opening either this week or

0:45 early next week,

0:46 sometime next week. When I think about all the things that you can use the cash

0:49 that they've

0:50 raised, that is probably one of the better things to do. Looks pretty cool.

0:55 Have you ever been, there was a bar or a restaurant in New York City in Times

1:02 Square

1:02 called ESPN Zone? I'm guessing you've never been to, so I don't even know why I

1:06 asked you that

1:06 question. You do not look like an ESPN Zone guy to me. When I was younger, the

1:12 first time I went

1:12 to Times Square, I went to ESPN Zone, and it's literally a million screens

1:19 everywhere showing

1:20 everything. You can drink and eat. This is that for all of Twitter. That

1:27 actually sounds like

1:27 a lot of fun. I'm in it. I thought you were going to say, there's a bar, I

1:32 think, in Germany

1:33 that tracks the price of beer, and it's a real-time consumption. You could see

1:37 how many people are.

1:38 If a particular pint or craft is getting more traction, it's basically real-

1:43 time markets.

1:45 I mean, again, the name of the game here is customer retention. Can I just say

1:49 something to that

1:50 before you go into that? There's nothing that highlights the difference between

1:54 you and I more,

1:55 that I'm like, "Hey, have you been to ESPN Zone?" And you're like, "Have you

1:59 been to this

1:59 esoteric bar in Germany that tracks the price of different beers?"

2:04 Well, conversion probably marketed. The reason I bring it up is we got to start

2:11 with macro.

2:12 We are not geopolitical experts, but it's pretty. I mean, oil is sitting at,

2:18 what is it, 116 bucks

2:21 or 120 bucks? They traded up again this morning. So yeah, what's a read on

2:26 macro? What's a house

2:27 view out there? I mean, obviously, did you read Bologie's tweet yesterday? He

2:34 talked a little bit

2:36 about what the broader macroeconomic effect might be of this war. Clearly, the

2:45 market has been

2:46 trying to digest what has happened. And I think originally when the war started

2:52 ,

2:52 there was a perspective that, "Okay, maybe this would be like Venezuela."

2:55 Clearly, that's what

2:57 the administration had been saying, and this will be over quickly, and that's

3:00 probably good because

3:01 there's more. We've killed a lot of this leadership who might be looking to

3:06 destabilize the region.

3:07 And as time's gone on, it looks very clear that that is not true. And not only

3:14 is that not true,

3:15 I think we clearly did not foresee that the IRGC would look to harm and attack

3:27 a lot of the

3:28 infrastructure in the region. And so we had this period of time where the

3:34 market was very shaky,

3:35 we traded down. But it was still clear to me that the equity market expected

3:40 that we were

3:41 probably going to get a relatively good resolution within maybe four to eight

3:46 weeks. I think the

3:47 administration had 1.4 weeks, and they said eight weeks. And then what happened

3:52 in the last

3:54 couple of weeks is that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, which a

4:00 significant amount of the

4:02 world's oil supply goes through the Strait of Hormuz. The administration has

4:07 been trying to get

4:09 other countries to come and help open the Strait, and that hasn't happened

4:16 today.

4:16 And so there's been, of course, a supply shock in oil, and that's why we had

4:20 the initial

4:21 oil trading update. I think we traded up to about 110. Then the administration

4:27 came out and said,

4:27 hey, listen, this will be OK. We're opening it up. We see that there's

4:31 potentially going to be a

4:32 resolution. Oil came back down to like $90.95. And the market kind of really

4:37 traded up at the

4:38 end of last week. And we saw crypto really rally on this. So I think Bitcoin

4:43 ended up going up to

4:44 about 70, maybe it was earlier this week, but it went up to about 75 bucks or

4:48 75k, and hype went up

4:50 to over $40, $40. We saw pretty much everything up 10, 20, 20, 30%. And it was

4:56 clear that there

4:58 was a bit of a relief and an expectation that now this is over. And then all of

5:03 that changed

5:04 yesterday, or I guess the last two days, when the IRGC struck a, I think it is

5:14 the, it's called the

5:15 South PARS field in Qatar, that is part of the same reservoir that also Iran

5:24 has a piece of,

5:25 that is 20% of the world's liquid and actual gas supply. It's estimated to have

5:31 cost like $70,

5:32 $80 billion to build the infrastructure to take that natural gas out of the

5:36 ground. And then we,

5:38 I mean, we're denying it, but some version of us, Israel, et cetera, looks to

5:43 have then

5:44 struck the Qatari side of that same reservoir. And we've now, it looks like

5:50 potentially that the,

5:53 you know, something like 20% of the world's liquid natural gas supply might go

5:57 offline

5:58 for a very extended period of time. And that has downstream effects that are in

6:03 every way inflationary

6:06 and bad for growth. And so now you've seen it happen. We, you know, the Fed

6:11 held rate steady

6:12 yesterday, and they, now the market was only priced in one rate cut this year,

6:18 which is obviously bad for risk assets. And the, if you looked at the front end

6:23 of the UK Treasury

6:24 market this morning, like it was clear that there, a lot of macro funds were

6:29 really struggling

6:30 with what was happening in the market as well. And if we were going to see a

6:33 lot more inflation

6:34 and how they should react to the rate hikes. And so I say all of that to say

6:38 that this is a,

6:40 really an Iran inflation growth story, and all of it is downstream from what's

6:45 happening in

6:46 the energy markets. And we just really do not know. And I do think crypto has a

6:51 good backdrop

6:52 right now more broadly and Bitcoin has traded relatively well. But, you know,

6:57 if there continues

6:58 to be this macroeconomic shock, and we have this downstream effect that is, is,

7:03 you know, quite

7:04 impactful, I don't know if we're going to be able to have risk assets really

7:08 take off in the near

7:10 medium term. Yeah, just to give people some context. I mean, before this

7:16 operation epic theory, I mean,

7:17 oil is traded up roughly 50%. I mean, it started out 70 bucks a barrel. Right

7:23 when the

7:24 war broke out with weekend, a couple of weeks ago, it was traded up to 86 bucks

7:30 on hyper liquid.

7:32 Now it's sitting at like what 116 120, I think it hit a peak of 130. So yeah, I

7:38 think it's been

7:39 a deteriorating situation. We're going to continue to monitor the situation.

7:44 But what's interesting

7:45 though is like, we should probably have a commodities kind of expert come on.

7:50 But one of the things is like, what does the curve look like for oil? And I

7:56 think it's still

7:56 very much like, like WTI futures, like they're like, like, it's there's massive

8:03 backwardation,

8:04 which means like, you know, the front of the curve is much higher than the back

8:08 end of the curve.

8:10 That tends to be kind of like common when there's these supply shocks. But that

8:16 's

8:16 something that I am monitoring is like, how does that curve look like? And how

8:19 does it shape up?

8:20 Because I think typically the market would have assumed like, hey, this is

8:23 going to get resolved,

8:24 the straight home is going to open up. And this is going to be like a Venezuela

8:28 type situation,

8:29 but it's starting to look like it's probably going to be a bit longer. I don't

8:32 know if it's

8:33 going to be like an Iraq Afghanistan type situation. But yeah, I think there's

8:37 uneasiness in the

8:39 market. And I think who knows how quickly this gets resolved. But certainly to

8:45 your point, like,

8:46 things have escalated. I was a bit shocked of the retaliation. Like a lot of

8:52 these,

8:52 you know, Iran is basically, I think, send a communication around anyone that

8:57 isn't like these

8:57 oil fields should probably evacuate, which means that they're going to target

9:01 them and

9:01 want to avoid casualties, but they're looking to destroy massive amounts of

9:05 infrastructure.

9:07 There's no amount of like theories of 3D chess of like, what this means, like,

9:12 I don't know if I buy any of those or nor should we necessarily talk about them

9:18 here. But what is

9:20 interesting though is, you know, hyper liquid continues to get a ton of

9:24 traction that continues

9:25 to be a strong theme as a result of all of this. Should we briefly touch on S&P

9:31 perps that I think

9:32 just recently launched and where your take is on that? ZK Sync is the bank

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10:11 As always, investments in blockchain technology involve risk, terms, and

10:18 conditions apply.

10:19 The Blockworks Digital Asset Summit is back in New York, March 24th through 26

10:25 th. We'll have top

10:26 speakers from leading asset managers, financial institutions, DeFi protocols,

10:31 crypto companies,

10:32 and policymakers, all under one roof. Think BlackRock, Coinbase, Robinhood, and

10:37 more.

10:38 Follow the link in today's show notes to buy tickets and make sure to use code

10:41 Empire 200 for $200 off at checkout. Yeah, I mean, super interesting. The S&P

10:50 has been pretty

10:52 forward thinking around this space. I actually did. I worked with the team over

10:57 there to do an

10:58 announcement for they did a tokenized index fund last year in 2025. I think it

11:03 actually launched

11:03 in September. And so we announced that I helped them do that announcement with

11:07 CentralFuge and

11:08 I think it was Janice Henderson like last July or so. And that funds them

11:16 pretty well. I think it's

11:17 $500, $600 million of AUM right now. And so the clearly, S&P was already

11:24 thinking about like,

11:24 okay, how do they want to be on chain? What sort of like tokenized asset

11:28 strategy should they be

11:29 should they be doing? And to your point, trade XYZ with these hip three markets

11:37 has just really kind of come to the forefront of just everybody's like every

11:44 trader is thinking

11:45 through, you know, how do I get access to the things that are happening over

11:49 the weekend 24/7.

11:50 There was no kind of centralized exchange way to do this with real liquidity.

11:54 It is hyper liquid

11:55 today that dominates that market. I mean, we've seen it be on the front of the

11:59 journal in front of

12:00 Bloomberg, like everybody's talking about this right now. And so, you know,

12:04 obviously they would

12:04 have been working on this for for a long period of time when it started today.

12:07 But it seems very

12:08 timely that now, you know, it it's not just, hey, okay, well, we're going to

12:13 launch a hip three

12:13 market that has some sort of, you know, kind of pulled together oracle that we

12:17 did, right, right,

12:18 from like a data feed that we're getting from, you know, that we're paying for

12:23 it from, you know,

12:23 one of the exchanges or something. But now we're going to work directly with

12:26 the S&P to be able to

12:27 offer like an official product. And that does, to me, signal a world where

12:35 right now,

12:35 hyper liquid is still very much a prosumer product. And maybe to me, signal is

12:40 a place where we can

12:41 maybe in the future get institutions trading these markets as well. There's

12:45 still a bunch of KYC

12:46 and other other concerns that you need for the institutions. But this is

12:49 obviously a really good

12:50 step in that direction and congratulations to to show crew and the team there

12:54 for freedom is done.

12:55 Yeah, no, it's big. I wonder how much volume they're going to get over the next

13:01 like,

13:01 if you were to predict like how much volume these guys get versus like some of

13:05 the commodity like

13:07 oil or copper or silver or gold that is pretty active, do you think this

13:11 actually surpasses them

13:13 fairly quickly? No, I mean, you have traditional markets, right? Like, you know

13:16 , FX commodities,

13:18 they trade more, right? I would think that these markets and they've traded

13:22 more on hyper liquid.

13:23 I would think that these markets would mirror traditional markets because it

13:29 just premieres

13:30 interest. I do think, you know, sometimes you see these like volume blowouts on

13:36 specific

13:36 equity names because they become like meme points for the retail crowd, right?

13:40 I think for the index,

13:41 like, I think it'll do well, but I would expect it not to, you know,

13:45 necessarily be, you know,

13:47 outsized relative to other stuff. Yeah, hyper liquid sitting at 40 bucks. I

13:54 mean, that's a

13:55 37 billion FDB, roughly nine billion market cap. I've heard a lot of chatter on

14:04 the timeline

14:05 around, hey, look, it's kind of over for some of the other networks, like hyper

14:08 liquid was just

14:08 dominated, perps are a killer product. What's a, I mean, it's still a fraction

14:18 of some of the other

14:18 networks. Like, what's a, what's the argument around can hyper liquid, where

14:24 the validity

14:25 around can hyper liquid just become bigger than Solana, could it become bigger

14:29 than some of the

14:30 other networks? Or like, what is the argument of it being pretty fairly priced

14:36 at this point?

14:38 I mean, if you look at like a traditional like, you know, exchange multiple and

14:45 decide that like

14:46 fees are, you know, entirely just revenue of fees and revenue are the same

14:50 thing, which I think is

14:51 probably not the right way to think about it, but some people do. Both hyper

14:55 liquid and lighter

14:56 actually traded discounts to on a multiple basis to traditional exchanges. I

15:03 think the

15:03 secrecy guys put out a, you know, some some data around this, this week that I

15:08 saw, and I haven't

15:09 looked at it. I haven't checked their work, but I'm just assuming they're right

15:12 , based on the data

15:14 they put out. And so I think there is obviously, you know, a world where these

15:19 markets continue to

15:20 get, I mean, these applications should continue to get bigger. Like, I think it

15:24 's very clear

15:25 that, you know, perps markets on chain offer a very good product, and they will

15:29 continue to grow,

15:30 they will continue to take market share from the, you know, centralized

15:34 exchange venues

15:35 over time. The real headwind or the real risk right now is definitely

15:41 regulatory and what that

15:43 means over time. But, you know, it hasn't, you know, in this, with these

15:48 regulators who definitely

15:49 want to be pro innovation, you know, I think that's less of a risk than maybe,

15:52 you know, another time.

15:55 And so they're going to continue to grow. Right. And obviously they're in with

15:58 a grow revenue

15:58 will grow. And there hasn't been a, you know, a fee compression or anything yet

16:02 at this point.

16:02 Yeah. But, but then your question is, okay, well, what does that mean in terms

16:07 of like a broader

16:07 network? Right. And I think on the broader network side, it is, it's

16:14 interesting because

16:15 applications can definitely be more valuable than some of the networks. Like,

16:18 there's no doubt that

16:19 Pauli market and maybe hyper liquid and, you know, some of these, these big

16:22 guys will be more,

16:24 like, like Pauli market is, is worth more than the polygon is today, right? And

16:28 yet they, they

16:28 have all of their, all of their volume on polygon. I think that will, that type

16:33 of flip will continue

16:34 to happen where the best applications accrue more of the value. But do, do I

16:40 think hyper liquid is

16:41 going to, you know, hyper EVM is going to become like a huge Solana competitor

16:46 for like everything

16:48 else that happens on chain? Like, probably not, right? But they're going to

16:51 continue to build this

16:52 incredibly robust and a really great application and ecosystem around trading

16:57 that they're doing.

16:58 Yeah. I mean, just to give folks some perspective, our last 90 days hyper

17:02 liquid is

17:02 top of leaderboard in terms of rev. They've even total revenue, they pulled in

17:12 140 million

17:13 over last 90 days. Second of that is Toronto 82, then Solana, you know, 90,

17:18 then Ethereum at 60,

17:19 the L one. So on that base, I mean, hyper liquid continues to be probably the,

17:25 and my, my estimation

17:27 is it, it likely dominates, like if you're over the next 12 months in terms of

17:32 fees,

17:32 just given the, I'm continually very encouraged by hip three and the activity

17:37 you're seeing there.

17:38 So I don't necessarily like would attach that much value to the hyper EVM. Like

17:45 , I actually

17:45 don't necessarily care that much about that. Other than like, do you continue

17:49 to believe that people

17:49 are going to trade these things? And if so, they're likely going to trade on

17:52 hyper liquid.

17:53 And so, yeah, I mean, on a, you know, me, I'm a mid curbing it on a, you know,

18:01 revenue

18:01 sort of basis, but yeah, it's pretty impressive what they've done.

18:05 Yeah, I mean, literally like their ability to launch markets quickly, a lot to

18:10 bootstrap liquidity

18:11 quickly to build a lot as, you know, a really great product from a technical

18:15 perspective in the way

18:16 that they think through, you know, how fees are out, how trades are ordered and

18:20 , you know,

18:21 how people get are able to, how the matching works, like, very clearly, like

18:27 they've done an

18:28 incredible job, you know, great product, it'll continue to grow. There's

18:30 definitely headwinds

18:32 around the regulatory side, but there's people like S&P who are willing to put

18:35 their, you know,

18:36 institutional stamp on it, which is, which is awesome. And I do still continue

18:42 to believe that,

18:43 like, you're wrong about, like, how these, the broader networks get valued.

18:47 Like, it's not a,

18:48 nobody's going to dead. Like, what do you think HTTP is worth today? Right?

18:53 Like, you tell me

18:53 what that what it is worth, but it has no value. It's a relevant question

18:56 because the value crew

18:58 just was not there or designed to do that, right? But, but I think I would

19:04 argue that, like,

19:04 Solana wasn't really designed to grow value either with how low their fees are.

19:08 But yeah, but when you look at the, the composition, like, my, when I invest in

19:15 these

19:16 things, I don't assume fees are going to be the bulk of the revenue. It's

19:18 actually MEV, right?

19:19 So REV, like, collectively, like, if you're creating, like, heterogeneous

19:24 markets,

19:25 it will always allow for MEV, right? There's always going to be someone that

19:29 wants to pay

19:30 for block inclusion, and that allows for higher margin products. In this case,

19:36 like,

19:36 I'm never going to bake my assumption. It just fees being the dominant. In fact

19:40 ,

19:40 over the long-term fees should encompass less and less of a share of how much

19:45 value gets captured

19:46 by the L1. I do also agree with your point. Like, apps should, collectively,

19:51 the apps sitting on

19:52 top of the L1 should be worth more than the L1 itself. But that does mean the L

19:59 1 itself should be

20:00 directly compared to its revenue for, in terms of value, right? And how do you

20:04 think of it through

20:04 the value of, you know, what that token is worth, or what the L1 itself is

20:08 worth?

20:08 I mean, you could argue that a lot of it is, I mean, clearly, the market sees

20:14 value in some sort of

20:15 memetic component and wealth creation and brand and goodwill. I just don't like

20:20 underwriting that.

20:21 But I am, like, if you look at this chart for instance, I am encouraged by

20:24 hyper liquid, you know,

20:25 revenue continues to grow up, grow quite a bit. You know, you have a reasonable

20:33 price to sales,

20:34 like, here that is not totally disconnected from reality, right? When I look at

20:38 ,

20:38 should I actually put a position on this thing or not versus go buy something

20:41 in the real world,

20:42 like figure at seven billion, you know, market cap and growing and pretty

20:46 interesting, like,

20:48 that's what I'm saying, like, I want to bring on the frictionless guys who've

20:55 done a lot of

20:55 thinking around valuing these things. I'm not saying like, you strictly should

20:59 look at it through

21:00 its lens, but I do think that it is a forcing function of saying, okay, what do

21:05 I need to believe

21:05 for this thing to actually eventually chose up in revenue? If you're not

21:09 capturing that much revenue,

21:11 all this hypothetical discussion around modes, and, you know, if you can't acc

21:16 rue value, then that is,

21:18 you know, representative of the quality of the product, the community, all this

21:23 stuff that

21:23 people talk about. And so... There are a lot of technologies that are sell for

21:34 very high valuations

21:35 or worth very high amounts of money who don't accrue a lot of value, right? But

21:43 they enable a lot of

21:44 value to be... What's a good example of that? I mean, like, obviously, we

21:50 talked about HTTP,

21:51 right? But there's a significant amount of HTTP, like, no one ever attached

21:55 value to that.

21:56 They provide a useful service. It's a common good in the same way that, you

22:00 know...

22:01 Well, there's a lot of common goods, right? And that are worth something, right

22:04 ? And there's a lot

22:05 of... I mean, there's a lot of businesses. I don't want to name specific

22:07 businesses, but you and I both

22:08 know there are a lot of businesses that have sold at 300 times revenue because

22:14 of the revenue,

22:16 the value that they allow someone else to accrue, right? Or the synergies that

22:19 they allow for

22:20 somebody else, right? Who buy themselves, and we've seen this in crypto, we've

22:23 seen this in AI,

22:24 that by themselves, they actually don't capture a lot of value. There are a lot

22:28 of companies

22:30 in our space, in AI right now, some of the deep tech spaces, who are not by

22:35 themselves

22:37 good businesses, but they are really good technologies that enable other

22:41 businesses to be built on top

22:43 of. And that is worth something. What is that worth? Is it worth? Is it Moore's

22:47 Law? Is there,

22:48 you know, network value? And, you know, it's some, you know, call it multiple

22:53 of the amount of value

22:54 that exists in the amount of nodes or the amount of value that is built there?

22:58 I don't know if that's

22:58 true. And exactly how to value them is, I think, still very up in the air. But

23:03 I think what is true

23:04 is that, you know, assigning a revenue multiple to an L1 is the wrong way to

23:09 think about it.

23:11 Sure. I mean, look,

23:13 you and I can have different opinions on that. I think about railroads.

23:19 No, we have to agree on everything. No, no, no. I mean, railroads are a good

23:23 example of this.

23:24 Like, historically, you can look at that, like, who actually accrued the most

23:26 amount of value.

23:27 It wasn't railroads. It was the cities that were connected and all the values

23:30 and services that

23:30 were built on top of that. I do think that this is like one of the things like,

23:34 I'm not going to go

23:35 out and short L1s because crypto markets defy rationality by any stretch of the

23:40 imagination.

23:41 And so, you know, I don't think it's a useful exercise to go on short these

23:44 things. But I'm not

23:45 going to put in a position on them. I'd rather invest in applications sitting

23:48 on top of these

23:49 networks that are reaping the value of that. Like, you know, you know, fees to

23:54 go back to fees,

23:55 like the average transaction price has gone dramatically down even in Ethereum

24:00 L1.

24:01 If you were to have built your analysis around, oh, that fees being high, it

24:07 actually like just

24:09 G-Mons paradox, right? Like, fees should continue to go down to allow for more

24:12 transactions and what

24:15 have you. But it's probably something that over the next five, 10 years, I don

24:22 't think that a lot

24:23 of value will accrue to L1s unless they diversify. And like there's growing MEV

24:29 . But like, let's talk

24:31 about tempo because I think that's something that we should, we should just

24:33 kind of like not have

24:34 this theoretical discussion on price to sales by revenue. Like, who cares,

24:37 right? Ultimately,

24:38 the market believes there's a dwelling buyer and seller at that price. So, you

24:41 know, we're not

24:42 here to fight that. But tempo is interesting because like, I've heard a lot of

24:48 folks just

24:49 converge on this idea that like stablecoin transfers in and of themselves don't

24:54 accrue

24:54 like much value. It's the values that the other things that are enabled by, you

25:00 know, having stable

25:01 like instant settlement and instant, you know, payouts. So, yeah, like, why don

25:07 't we just touch

25:08 on tempo if you want to give us a rundown and then like, yeah. Yeah, I mean, I

25:15 think everybody

25:15 at this point knows about tempo. Obviously, it's the paradigm plus, you know,

25:21 stripe collaboration

25:22 for, you know, really trying to build a payments focused or payments first

25:26 blockchain. The ways

25:29 they do that are a couple of different things. And there's some technical

25:32 nuances to how they

25:33 have built certain products that are embedded into the chain. The main thing

25:39 that I think matters

25:40 is that they basically preserve the majority of the block for stablecoin

25:46 transfers.

25:47 And they basically deprioritize any non stablecoin transfers. And they also

25:55 provide it's also,

25:56 there's like a fee schedule and they do kind of dynamic fees. And so it's very

26:00 much trying to

26:00 incentivize stablecoin transfers. And the idea is that like, instead of being

26:06 permissioned,

26:07 you're just putting the right economic incentives in place. So that the only

26:10 thing people actually

26:11 want to do on the chain or the thing that people will hopefully want to do on

26:13 the chain is do,

26:15 you know, payments, essentially. Now, you know, it launched yesterday, made it

26:19 launched and I

26:20 think within 10 minutes, there was a Epstein related meme coin on a tempo, but

26:24 maybe that's

26:25 just that's just crypto. But clearly, what they've done is they've built it in

26:30 such a way that's

26:30 supposed to be like, this is for payments, right? And all of their business

26:33 development around what

26:34 they're doing with Stripe, bridge, privy, the entire ecosystem there has been

26:38 about how do we

26:39 bring people a package of doing on chain payments inclusive of this thing,

26:44 right? And so they

26:45 launched yesterday, they also announced a, I forget is that it's called MPP, I

26:48 forget exactly what MPP

26:49 stands for now machine payments protocol opens machine payments. Yeah, and so

26:55 that's like an

26:55 agent payments protocol that you can use, your stablecoins or, or cards or a

27:00 bunch of different

27:01 types of payment mechanisms, and trying to be kind of an open standard for, for

27:07 , for, for, you know,

27:08 agent payments in agent, economic activity. That is anybody could technically

27:14 extend it, but most

27:16 of the, the governance, like basically all the governance right now is done at

27:20 like, you know,

27:20 the tempo level. And so it's not quite an open source, you know, project yet,

27:24 but in terms of like,

27:26 you know, actually being able to have, you know, other people unpack the way it

27:30 works. But I think

27:32 I expect they'll do that over time. But that competes, you know, kind of

27:36 directly with, you

27:37 know, some of these other protocols are these, these kind of standards, it's

27:40 really a standard

27:40 for, you know, agent economic commerce, things like X402, which, you know,

27:45 Coinbase is obviously

27:46 behind. And, you know, open AI and the foundational models all launched their

27:50 own Google launched

27:52 their own. And so there's a lot of these people kind of have these standards

27:54 out there. And so,

27:56 you know, that's also, I think, somewhat interesting at the time, when everyone

27:59 's thinking about

27:59 agentic, agentic activity, but all of that to be said, that brings it back to

28:04 your original

28:05 question, which is like, okay, so this is an interesting piece of the, you know

28:09 , stripe,

28:10 you know, pie, right, but does tempo itself a crew value, right? And that was

28:16 kind of what

28:16 you're asking because it raised at a $5 billion valuation. But will the fees

28:21 and all of the economic

28:23 value accrual be done by other strike products, or, you know, other bridge

28:28 products or privy,

28:29 not tempo itself, unless maybe launches a token. So I don't know, what's your

28:33 perspective there?

28:35 Yeah, I don't think like stablecoins along carry the boat to justify that

28:42 valuation. It's what

28:43 it allows, like value added services on top. So is it worth $5 billion today?

28:50 Probably not.

28:51 Is it going to be useful in the area for stripe? Yes, you know, providing

28:58 better services to their

28:59 customer base? What was interesting is, I mean, part of part of the benefit

29:03 here is the muscle

29:04 that they have. I mean, out of the gate, they have visa collaborating with them

29:07 . We have a bunch

29:08 of other ecosystem partners. You know, I quote, for example, our design partner

29:14 visa has already

29:15 extended MPP to support card based payments on their network. Stripe has

29:19 extended it to support

29:20 cards while it's another payment methods through their platform. Lightspark has

29:24 also extended for

29:25 Bitcoin payments or the lightning network. And I think like that's, you know,

29:30 we've talked about

29:30 it here at length, which is like, this is kind of like when we were at lunch

29:33 with a very impressive

29:34 set of partners and never got off the ground. Obviously, I am very curious

29:40 about what how much

29:41 traction they get. I forget, but I saw a chart around like, was X402 payments,

29:46 or the activity

29:47 there's like kind of been declining. And it was all the rage a couple months

29:52 back. And now there

29:53 has been that much activity. I am curious. There's been basically no organic X

29:59 402 activity ever.

30:02 So there was like some people, there were some like people who were like

30:05 launching

30:06 on top of X402 that if you look, it looks like watch trading and people thought

30:10 maybe there would be

30:11 some, you know, base or X402, like, you know, value, you know, token value acc

30:15 rual to at some point.

30:16 But there's basically never been any real activity on X402. Yeah, anyways.

30:19 Yeah. Yeah, I, I'm looking here a cumulative stats 75.4 million transactions 24

30:27 .2 in total volume,

30:29 less than 100k buyers. I am, when you look at that, like, does that, I don't

30:36 know if you guys

30:36 made an investment in like a gente comm or so it is a it is a key narrative,

30:39 right? Around like,

30:41 you know, people get excited. Like the the common thread that I'm hearing now

30:45 is like,

30:45 you know, blockchains were not built for humans, they're built for robots. And

30:48 you know,

30:49 this is crypto trying to be relevant at an age of AI. But how do you, how do

30:52 you see?

30:55 I actually do think it will it makes sense to spin up an agent and give it, you

31:01 know,

31:01 for an agent to use stablecoins when it can't care what I see and what not. I

31:06 do bind to that

31:06 narrative. I think it's quite real. But what would you attribute the the is it

31:11 just the X402?

31:12 Like it was that just there's not enough use cases people are not thinking

31:18 about it.

31:19 There is no agent to commerce today. Like that there is no agent to commerce at

31:23 all.

31:23 Like it is like we are all talking about a jump to commerce. It does not exist,

31:26 right?

31:27 Now doesn't mean it doesn't mean it. I mean, not zero, obviously, but like it's

31:30 de minimis, right? And all of the agenda commerce that is happening today is

31:34 happening through

31:35 traditional rails using stripes API's for the most part, right? Now, does that

31:39 mean it won't

31:40 exist in the future? No, that's not what that means. But X402 and the Google

31:45 and open AI and

31:46 anthropic and now MPP, all of these standards exist. But nobody has agreed on a

31:52 standard yet,

31:53 right? And there needs to be some agreement on a standard in the future to us

31:57 to continue to build,

31:58 you know, more economic value around that and, you know, products around that.

32:03 So we're going to have to see one of these things win over time, right? We're

32:08 also just going to

32:08 have to see agents get better because agents are great in a lot of ways today.

32:14 But the near term

32:16 activity that we're seeing is things like enterprise use cases for, which is

32:20 like really like advanced

32:21 RPA, right? It's like automation work, right? Or it's, you know, helpers to you

32:27 and I, who on

32:28 research and on, you know, maybe, you know, some of our workflows, right? But

32:34 even it was not really

32:36 a way for us to do, I mean, there are a lot of people who have like perplexly

32:39 launched a product

32:40 and other people launched a product around like, oh, could we pay with an agent

32:43 to do something?

32:44 Those, those products are still very clunky today. And also the reality is, is

32:49 like,

32:49 because of the amount of approvals that you have to do in those today, it would

32:53 take me

32:54 longer to buy, you know, toilet paper through perplexity than it would just to

32:58 do it myself

32:59 and click into my Amazon app, right? And so it's like not a great user

33:02 experience yet. And also,

33:04 there's from a lot of things humans want to buy. They want to be buying things.

33:10 And so,

33:10 I think the story that you were, you were referencing earlier, which is the

33:14 better story,

33:15 isn't about merchant acceptance from agents. It's more about, is there an

33:22 economy that exists

33:24 outside of human to merchant, you know, payments or business to merchant

33:30 payments that is net new

33:32 and that agents are doing? I think that's the story. That market is very, very

33:36 far away from

33:37 actually existing. There are a lot of people building around it today. But we

33:41 haven't done a deal

33:43 there yet because it feels so far out in the future and so unclear how that

33:48 market will exist

33:49 that we're doing, we're having the conversations, we're meeting the

33:52 entrepreneurs, we're trying

33:54 to be smart about it. But it just hasn't yet felt like the risk reward is there

33:58 relative to how hot

33:59 the market is and the valuations that these companies are getting when, you

34:03 know, when it

34:04 doesn't exist yet. Yeah, I had a really look at a deal that this particular

34:09 individual was leaving

34:11 when a larger card networks and said, "Hey, I feel like this is going to be a

34:14 big thing. I want

34:14 to launch my own." I didn't end up investing that because I do think that

34:18 distribution is king here

34:20 and I did. It's very, what Tempo has gotten very well is like they just have an

34:23 impressive

34:24 beady muscle and distribution partners out of the gate. And it doesn't mean

34:29 that other,

34:29 you know, there isn't an opportunity for other folks to thrive, but it's just

34:33 hard to compete

34:34 again. So super well resource, very human capital dense organization that has a

34:39 lot of partners out

34:39 of the gate. But we'll see. I mean, I think, have there been projects that have

34:50 come to you in the

34:51 kind of early stage and said, "Hey, we're going to build on top of Tempo?"

34:54 Because that's an interesting

34:56 stat. Like if you look at like the, for instance, there was a time where like

35:01 there's 99% of the

35:02 projects were just purely Ethereum. And then that pendulum swung a little bit

35:06 more towards Solana.

35:07 Now you're seeing some activity in hype, like hype, like hype, BBM, like, you

35:12 know,

35:13 that ecosystem being built out a bit. Have you seen major changes or people

35:18 come to you and say,

35:18 "Hey, I want to build on top of Tempo. Is that even a thing?" Or is it most of

35:22 the close source

35:23 and people are just not building on top of it? So we haven't seen a lot in the

35:28 way of like net

35:28 new entrepreneurs yet. There are obviously people, I was sitting next to a

35:33 dinner last night next to

35:35 the founders of one of the largest DeFi protocols. And you know, I don't think

35:38 they publicly announced

35:38 it, but they've already been deployed there for a little bit and they'll do

35:41 some work there.

35:42 There are obviously a lot of people deploying there. And Tempo? Yeah, on Tempo.

35:46 They just haven't

35:47 announced it yet. But I think they did do is they like enshrined to their own

35:52 decks, right? And so

35:54 they will, I think, in the same way that, you know, some of the other more

35:57 commercially-minded

35:58 elements have done, they will just create winners because if they create

36:01 winners, then

36:02 liquidity will aggregate. And if liquidity aggregates, then like it's a better

36:05 product, right? And so

36:07 we haven't seen much in the way yet of what I would say developer, net new,

36:14 like, you know,

36:15 projects building there that are trying to raise capital. I'm sure it'll happen

36:18 , you know,

36:19 over time. But the business, you know, the way it's built, which is really

36:25 around payments,

36:27 like, they do not care. They are very opinionated about what they want to be.

36:32 And they don't care

36:33 if, like, the latest DeFi, you know, person or latest DeFi entrepreneur wants

36:37 to build there.

36:38 Like, that is not their business. And they've explicitly said that, right? And

36:41 they've made

36:42 design decisions to do that, right? And so if that's the case, like, you're

36:46 just going to see

36:46 the less new net new entrepreneurs. And what it is going to be, though, is it's

36:49 going to be

36:50 focused on this one use case, really focused on this one use case. And it's

36:56 probably at least in

36:56 the near term, it'll ever die based on the BD emotion of Stripe, right?

37:00 Eventually,

37:00 maybe it'll be broader. And there's, you know, referrals and there's liquidity,

37:03 sort of like liquidity, it's liquidity and being on the same chain as the

37:08 partner,

37:08 you know, is a good thing, right? But but today it's, it's, it's going to live

37:12 or die based on Stripe.

37:13 Yeah. Who, um, there's a lot of opinions on the timeline that we don't have

37:20 enough time to

37:21 discuss, but who stands to benefit other than Stripe, equity holders, I would

37:27 argue,

37:27 who stands to benefit and who stands to lose the most in a world where Tempo is

37:33 successful.

37:34 I can think of who loses, but I'm curious. You always go with this podcast Rob

37:41 since you're

37:42 the newest member here. You just want me to say the spicy things. So people,

37:49 you know,

37:51 I sort of stopped competing against who's going to get the first 10 seconds

37:55 clip of like, you know,

37:56 that's your role. I'm, I'm happy in my lane. Just I don't deliver that. I'm

38:01 like an old dog,

38:02 man. You know, my takes are watched down like, you know, I'm, you're like that,

38:07 that meme of like

38:08 the guy in the hot tub, you know, like, I'm bothered moisturizing my lane as a

38:14 world blows up now.

38:15 Um, but yeah, like, who, I mean, you and I share all, maybe all stuff. You and

38:20 I share this investment

38:21 present codex. First, you know, it is top of mind here. Very sharp guys. A lot

38:27 of really,

38:29 very opinionated as well. I think they have really unique insights, but they,

38:34 again,

38:34 super specific on this, like, um, you could argue they are now going to compete

38:41 against Tempo,

38:42 right? And I can think of others, but yeah, how do you think about though?

38:47 Yeah, the codex guys, obviously there's more to that story in terms of like the

38:52 partnerships.

38:52 They've actually pivoted. They announced it today. You probably haven't seen it

38:55 , but

38:55 they're now entirely focused on Fx business. Um, and so they, they kind of

39:00 launched their

39:00 rebrand today. Um, and they're actually doing a few hundred million a month in

39:05 Fx, but, uh, right

39:05 now, uh, so, um, they're, uh, and that's growing quickly. So kind of a

39:09 different business. Uh,

39:11 and I'd like to your point, I'm big fans of, of how Nann and, and Momo. Um, I

39:16 think on the loser side,

39:17 obviously, like, you know, who's competing the most? Like who has dedicated

39:21 payments teams,

39:22 it's competing on payments, right? Solana has a big dedicated payments team. Uh

39:26 , Monad has a

39:28 debt, big dedicated payments team and they have very good people there. The Raj

39:32 who, um,

39:32 came from Visa, uh, and then Portal, uh, runs that business for them. Um, you

39:37 know, there's a,

39:38 then there's kind of like the, it's like Circle Arc, right? Which hasn't

39:41 launched yet and there's,

39:43 um, you know, then there's the, you know, you can debate whether or not it's

39:46 not clear to me that

39:47 like plasma or stable or any of these guys actually wanted to be payments. They

39:51 just wanted to be

39:51 kind of like places for, for, you know, tether to sit. Um, but there's

39:55 definitely people of like,

39:56 you know, picks the stable coin chain before probably actually the one that the

39:59 other two that are

40:01 people talk about less, but I've been done more of the work there have been

40:05 polygon in and, um, uh,

40:07 and, um, no, uh, Tron. Yeah. And then there's the one, the first one that Strap

40:13 invested in, um,

40:14 which is, um, uh, I'll remember the name earlier, but the PayPal, the extra

40:21 PayPal out of crypto,

40:22 um, is there now? Uh, those are actually the guys. That's, uh, that's, uh, poly

40:27 gon. No, no, no,

40:29 uh, Polygon took somebody from Strap, a guy named John Egan. Yeah. Oh, paper.

40:33 Yeah. Yeah. But the,

40:35 um, uh, listen, polygon is actually doing like a lot of payments volume today

40:40 and they have a

40:40 bunch of institutional payments partners. Like they are now directly head and

40:44 they did that

40:45 acquisition or two acquisitions, I guess. It was the early January or December

40:51 that made them kind of

40:52 fully verticalized payments stack, right? And that's essentially what's

40:55 happening here with tempo

40:56 and stripe and bridge. And so, you know, they're that they're going to be a

40:59 real competitor.

41:00 Solana is obviously taking a little bit of a different approach because, um,

41:04 they started,

41:05 I think leading some VC deals. So they're definitely trying to, you know,

41:08 continue to put money into

41:10 and, and, um, you know, work to get the right people built on top of them. Uh,

41:15 but they're,

41:16 they haven't necessarily owned, you know, like all the fully verticalized stack

41:20 today. Um,

41:22 and so, you know, that's the competitive set, right? And those are the people

41:25 who obviously are

41:26 going to be going to be worried about about tempo. Um, I think to your point

41:32 around, okay, well,

41:33 well, what happens in a world where they're really successful? Like who accrues

41:37 value? Well,

41:38 yeah, I mean, clearly the stripe equity holders accrue value. Um, theoretically

41:43 , the tempo equity

41:44 holders agree value or if they want your token. Uh, I do a lot of economic

41:50 activity happening on

41:51 an EVM chain is probably just good for all of crypto. And some sense it is a

41:56 rising tide,

41:57 but it's, you know, it's probably less good for Ethereum than it is good for

42:01 tempo, but it's not

42:02 bad for Ethereum. If more economic activity from corporations is happening on

42:06 tempo in my mind,

42:07 right? Maybe it's bad for the payments to focus guys or, you know, the, uh, the

42:12 L2s. I don't think

42:13 it's bad for like Ethereum mainnet, right? Because that was never going to be a

42:17 place where you did,

42:19 you know, a large scale amount of traditional, you know, payments. Right. And

42:23 so I actually think,

42:25 I mean, I think there's a rising tides left all boats and that's happening here

42:29 with the Rosie.

42:30 That's always been the Rosie kind of, uh, you know, more activity lifts all

42:34 boats. And so the,

42:36 if someone wins in some part of the ecosystem and benefits everything, I

42:39 actually think

42:39 my stance is a bit more, uh, cutthroat now. I think, uh, you know, that there

42:45 is likely going to be,

42:47 um, you know, that's always the position of a week of a week player, right? It

42:50 's like, oh,

42:50 this is good. But the reality is I think probably

42:54 more concentrated volume, um, even though there's interoperability, even though

43:01 there's,

43:02 you know, uh, you know, the user that enters via tempo could maybe go to

43:07 Ethereum, uh,

43:09 probably maybe I'm, I'm not sure. Um, but, uh, we'll see. I mean, I, I think

43:16 the tendency for

43:17 companies, whether you're Solana or layer zero or Stripe is to own that user

43:24 and not share with

43:24 anyone else if you don't have to. Um, but, uh, I just have a perspective. And

43:29 by the way, it was,

43:30 it was stellar. I was talking about earlier because I actually today, stellar

43:33 and polygon are

43:34 definitely doing, um, probably the most payments in terms of like actual

43:37 payments. You know,

43:38 Solana is there as well, but, um, you know, they've started to get a lot of

43:41 partnerships on board

43:42 while those partnerships aren't really, haven't really scaled yet. Um, but the,

43:47 if more and more

43:49 of what you and I do on a daily basis, it happens to be on chain, more

43:53 businesses will build on chain

43:55 and there'll be more RWAs, there'll be more tokenized assets, there'll be more

44:00 stable coins,

44:00 there will be more, um, net new novel products that will exist because block

44:06 chains enable that,

44:07 right? And I think it's very clear that like, there's no one chain that will

44:15 win all activity,

44:17 right? Like I think that's a very myopic view that doesn't really make a lot of

44:19 sense. Uh, we will

44:21 probably eventually have a fully abstracted, you know, routing system at some

44:25 point that all of

44:26 these guys will plug into that will, you know, give you press price essentially

44:30 across all of

44:31 these different chains. Uh, and the fact that, you know, tempo might, let's say

44:37 tempo is really

44:38 successful and they own, you know, all of the like cross-border payments, right

44:41 ? Um,

44:42 those after that cross-border payments happening, they're being delivered to

44:46 somebody. If it's

44:47 going to an end user, that end user will have a wallet, that end user with that

44:51 wallet will

44:51 figure out ways to spend and save and do all of these other things. And, um,

44:55 you know, the design

44:56 decisions that was made today is not to serve that ecosystem. It's to serve the

45:01 cross-border

45:02 payments ecosystem. Yeah. Uh, yeah, I think this goes back to what I was saying

45:06 earlier and, you know,

45:07 you've probably heard me say this year ago when I was starting off at Meru,

45:10 which is more valuable

45:11 accrue to, to the applications that Clark knows of the world, the new banks of

45:15 the world that can

45:16 choose the infrastructure beneath them, right? To lower the cost of, to serve.

45:20 Um, uh, I think

45:22 time and time again over crypto like once a new player comes in, it just

45:26 introduces more competition

45:28 at that infrastructure layer. And that's always been beneficial for the end

45:31 customer. Um, above

45:33 anything else, right? When Solana came in and like sucked in a lot of DeFi

45:37 activity from Ethereum,

45:39 that like galvanize the Ethereum community. Okay, we got to get our shit

45:42 together because, you know,

45:43 we're getting our out, you know, we're getting our ass kicked here. And I think

45:47 tempo coming

45:47 into the full, like in the same, the hyper liquid made it abundantly clear to

45:51 the Solana leadership

45:52 that they missed, like they dropped the ball on, on perps. Now you have bulk,

45:57 uh, response to

45:59 hyper liquid and then it launched like this week. And so that's something that

46:03 I'm paying attention

46:03 to. But I think that competition at the infra layer is good for the app sitting

46:07 on top and

46:08 ultimately the consumer that is seeing that because they have just access to

46:11 more products.

46:12 They don't really care what that gets routed to your point, right? I mean, it's

46:15 , you know,

46:16 going back to HTTPS, like all you cared about was like, Oh gosh, I can have

46:19 access to Gmail,

46:20 not just Hotmail. That's good for me. You know, this seems pretty good. And

46:23 commerce online just

46:24 became safer. So I think, um, that's where I sort of mean, like, I think I'd

46:31 rather be investing

46:33 and sitting a layer on top because it is just fiercely competitive about the

46:36 infrastructure layer.

46:37 And, um, but net net, it's good for apps. It's good for developers. It's good

46:41 for

46:42 and customers that are just going to benefit from greater ease and convenience

46:47 when they're

46:47 trying to use any sort of stablecoin or crypto enabled product, for that matter

46:51 .

46:52 Yeah. I mean, there's no doubt it's being on chain is better for consumers,

46:56 right? And like,

46:58 the consumers are the ones that we're going to win in the end.

47:01 Yeah, I got five minutes for I was having an expensive call with, uh, with a

47:06 lawyer here that

47:07 I don't want to be late for. But there's just a couple of things where we get

47:10 the content of the

47:10 week. My favorite part, uh, Kraken, we've talked about a length. They just came

47:14 out saying that

47:15 they're delaying IPO plans. I think so they didn't, they didn't say it. Well,

47:19 there was a coin.

47:20 There's a coin that's article that said it. Um, I don't know if that's actually

47:24 true or not.

47:25 And I will say that, you know, I know the team there pretty well. And I think,

47:29 um, uh, I don't

47:31 expect this to be a material, uh, bump in the road for that. Yeah. I think when

47:36 they were raising

47:36 the last round, a lot of there was certainly like a lot of SPVs, a lot of

47:40 people that came in. It

47:41 was a big round. A lot of them were kind of looking at like, Hey, there's,

47:44 there's a likely

47:44 going to be an IPO event. Uh, I don't think anyone underwrote this year. I

47:48 think most people assumed

47:49 it was going to be like, uh, within the next three years kind of thing. And I

47:52 would probably think

47:53 that that continues to be on track. Um, you know, irrespective of like macro

47:58 conditions and whatnot,

47:59 like they've been, they've been like in this IPO readiness track for quite a

48:02 bit of time and

48:03 they continue to ship really good products. And so I, I think it happens within

48:07 probably next year.

48:08 Um, unless there's some like major kind of catastrophic market event, I think

48:12 they could

48:12 probably be a Reddit IPO next year. Yeah. I, I, um, I still think this year is

48:18 possible. So, um, yeah.

48:20 Are there, are there on this point, are there other, uh, in the docket? Like,

48:23 uh, I think we saw

48:24 it just a huge wave loss from this bitco. Is there anything else that's coming

48:27 on?

48:27 There's a bunch of people who might come this year. Uh, I think nobody's

48:31 decided for sure. I think

48:32 it depends a little bit. The markets probably need to stabilize like, like the

48:36 IPO market,

48:36 all of a sudden kind of shot again with the, the war in Iran, right? And so,

48:40 you know,

48:40 tell the risk as risk markets are back. Like you're not going to see any good

48:44 IPOs, let alone, uh, the,

48:47 you know, got the crypto ones. You also probably don't want to be going at the

48:51 same time that

48:52 open AI and SpaceX are going. And so you probably want to avoid that. And so

48:57 you're

48:57 probably your window is like, you know, call it the next three to six months or

49:02 else you want to

49:02 push it to next year. So, but there's a lot of people, I will say that I do

49:05 think a lot of people want to

49:06 get, um, get out before the next election. Yeah. Yeah, we should, yeah, no, is

49:13 our rather, you know,

49:14 in-house political expert. We'll save that discussion for next week of DAS,

49:17 which I'm very

49:18 excited about. Um, and we should talk about like what it means for crypto. Uh,

49:23 if the war continues

49:24 and, you know, approval ratings go down, like, you know, you have a different,

49:27 you know, shake up in

49:28 the houses. Like what that means for the clarity, I can have a bunch of other

49:31 things, but I mean,

49:32 if you look at polywracker right now, it's, it's, it's flashing to you pretty

49:35 clearly what

49:36 they think is going to happen in the midterms. Yeah. Does that worry you? No, I

49:42 mean, it's also

49:44 typical in the midterms, right? Like the, um, the house is almost certainly

49:47 going to flip. Uh,

49:49 the Senate is in play. I don't think anybody thought the Senate would be in

49:51 play, but now it is.

49:53 Um, we'll see. I think, you know, the number one thing will be kind of the

49:56 downstream effects

49:57 from my ran war and how long the ran war goes to be honest. Yeah. Yeah.

50:00 Speaking of, as an aside,

50:03 before we go to content of the week, uh, we, so token got canceled. I think a

50:07 lot of conferences,

50:08 I think token Singapore is still going to happen, but, uh, you can expect the

50:12 airfare to be

50:13 dramatically more expensive, uh, going forward. Um, just kind of wild how that

50:19 spiked. I hope you,

50:20 I hope you booked your travel in advance for offer on some of these conferences

50:23 . I know you and I

50:24 are going to go to an event that you guys are doing in an undisclosed location,

50:27 but uh, um,

50:28 I'm glad I booked that airfare well in advance because it's looking pretty,

50:32 pretty steep now.

50:32 I've already got my airfare book to Monaco to come see you. So, yeah. Don't

50:39 worry. You have,

50:40 you have a couch, man. You know, um, all right. Well, that's a, at risk of

50:46 going down geopolitical

50:47 route. Yet again, uh, I think we, we've maintained ourselves pretty, pretty

50:51 good here. Uh, not,

50:52 not done too much of that. Uh, what's the content of the week here?

50:54 Two things. One, the most obvious thing, which is it's March Madness.

50:59 So like it is, you know, it's college basketball, one of the most fun times in

51:04 the year.

51:04 What's, what's March Madness?

51:06 No, you're not serious. I'm not, I'm not that bad. I won't let you, I won't let

51:12 you have that. Um,

51:13 so March Madness, you know, obviously that's all my mind. And then, um,

51:18 are you a Buckeye? Uh, yeah, a higher state Buckeye fan. So they have an eight

51:22 seed, you know, um,

51:23 so we'll, uh, you know, it's a football school, not a basketball school, but we

51:27 'll, we'll see,

51:27 the basketball team's had no case season. So we'll see how it goes. Um, and

51:31 then, uh, you know,

51:33 I have to get back to, to my horror movie roots. And there's, uh, there was a,

51:37 a movie called Ready

51:38 or Not, which was actually like a very fun, um, movie about a woman who, you

51:44 know, got married

51:45 into a family. And it turns out this family has sort of a very odd tradition

51:50 about, um, having to,

51:51 like, sacrifice, you know, kind of the new, uh, the new bride. Um, and then she

51:56 kind of ends up

51:58 beating the, beating the family and, and end up not being sacrificed. But the

52:01 sequel to that comes

52:02 out tomorrow. It's actually very fun. It's cool movie, you know, kind of a

52:05 action, a horror movie.

52:07 It's obviously in that opening day. So you're going to go to the movie theater

52:10 and popcorn and

52:11 all that stuff. Oh yeah. The, the, the, there's a, the one you go through is

52:17 like old fashions and

52:18 this. I mean, I'm going to have an old fashioned and maybe I'll have a, you

52:21 know, a popcorn or

52:22 maybe all the burger. You know, if you ever want to go on Friday, I feel like

52:26 we leak a lot

52:26 of off of you ever want to raise from, from drag and fly. You just have

52:30 basically gotten a blueprint

52:32 as to how to approach, uh, talk about horror, have an opinion on old fashioned,

52:38 um, and, and,

52:40 I mean, old fashioned kind of sore. You should know that. Yeah. I know. I know

52:43 that now. I think

52:44 the market now knows that. And so I think we use this podcast. If you ever want

52:47 to raise around

52:48 from drag and fly, there's a lot of primer, like alpha here that breadcrumbs

52:51 that you just pick

52:52 up and, and, and, and like show that you're prepared. Um, so my content of the

52:57 week is as

52:58 always more boring here. Uh, I started, uh, reading, uh, Carl Malone's book

53:02 Born to Be Wired. Uh,

53:03 just a really fantastic, I've always had it on my list. I read Ted Turner's, um

53:08 , book, uh, a while

53:10 back. And that's obviously the, uh, intertwined. Uh, but this one is just

53:14 phenomenal. Um, just a

53:15 really fascinating story of how they did roll ups of the cable industry. Um, of

53:20 course, they

53:20 now have Liberty Media. I know how much you like F1. They bought F1, which is

53:23 probably one of

53:24 a phenomenal investment in my mind, but it tells you everything like just, uh,

53:28 they laid the, the

53:29 fiber, um, first the cable than the fiber, uh, which obviously allowed for the

53:33 internet and whatnot.

53:34 And then, um, yeah, really, really fascinating story. Uh, that's called Born to

53:38 Be Wired. Uh,

53:39 I'm halfway through it. Uh, I started a couple of days ago and it's just really

53:42 , really, really

53:43 good book. So I recommend. Cool. I'll check it out. All right. So what next

53:49 week,

53:49 Dass, we're going to be recording live in person. Yeah. That's going to be fun.

53:54 Big time.

53:54 And it'll be Yano's big comeback. Come back. Yes. That's right. That's right.

53:59 That's

53:59 going to be fun, man. I'm excited for that. And, uh, if, if you guys are in New

54:02 York,

54:03 let us know. Uh, this is probably the time where Yano would be doing a plug to

54:06 get your tickets to

54:07 Dass. Prices are going to go up like in 20 minutes. I think it's almost sold

54:10 out. Sold out, sold out.

54:12 It's going to be a great event. Um, if you're in the area, let us know and

54:16 excited to hang out with

54:17 you guys in person. Cool. All right. All right. See you next week, guys.

Moon

· 4h

Jose 解释了哪些经济体最容易受到人工智能颠覆的影响。
“印度的 IT 外包行业规模达 3000 亿美元，占经济总量的 8%，在我看来，它似乎注定要遭受重创。身处风暴中心时，这些事情发生的速度往往比你想象的要慢，但似乎不可避免。” #ai

https://x.com/Delphi_Digital/status/2035242792939823380?s=20

中文 English

0:00 我觉得有些公司只是利用印度而已。

0:02 比如说，我前几天在研究这个。

0:04 印度的IT外包行业规模达3000亿美元。

0:07 在我看来，这大约占经济的8%。

0:09 我觉得这行业会被严重打击，对吧？

0:13 就是你根本无法避免。

0:14 而且很快，这种变化就会发生。

0:16 有趣的是第四季度，它还增长了8%。

0:19 你知道，这种事情就像谷歌搜索一样发生。

0:22 收入还是增长的，你懂吗？

0:23 所以这些变化比你在边缘时想象的要慢。

0:26 我看了利奥波德·阿什布伦纳的投资组合。

0:28 他这季度做空了Infosys，这是印度最大的IT外包公司。

0:32 就是那家最大的印度IT外包公司。

0:33 我觉得这真的很有意思。

Moon

· 22h

#SpaceX 发布了一段新的视频，展示了其计划在月球上建造的电磁质量驱动器，该驱动器将把大型人工智能卫星送入轨道。这些卫星将使用特斯拉芯片。https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/2035534544795791850?s=20

Moon

· 22h

代理人之间的交易 @autonolas #agent

https://x.com/david_enim/status/2035453490714095824?s=20

Moon

· 23h

我们正在打造 TERAFAB，以弥合当今芯片生产与未来需求之间的差距——一个星际未来。 #TERAFAB #ai #芯片
加入我们 → http://terafab.ai

https://x.com/SpaceX/status/2035542868790558771?s=20

Moon

· 1d

拉乌尔·帕尔表示，本轮周期与2017年相似，可能在2026年6月达到峰值。

人工智能、ETF和流动性或将推动加密货币市场规模从3万亿美元飙升至100万亿美元 🚀 #ai #etf #btc #加密货币

https://x.com/Vivek4real_/status/2035237956567671077?s=20

Moon

· 1d

乔迪·维瑟：稳定币的交易量正在激增。稳定币的市值也在激增。

但比特币并未跟上这股势头。

“在稳定币与比特币的历史对比中，这是首次出现这种情况：当稳定币的市值和交易量不断攀升时，比特币却没有随之上涨。”

这种差距正是信号所在。 #usdc #btc

https://x.com/MilkRoad/status/2035371427835342908?s=20

中文 English

0:00 2020年的印钞。我说的是美联储从加息突然转向，“是的，我们不再加息了”，这发生在2022年末，导致了一波大反弹，

0:06 然后说，

0:06 “是的，我们不再加息了”，这发生在2022年末，导致了一波大反弹，

0:10 在ETF推出前，

0:11 比特币和所有加密货币的每一个部分，都涉及到流动性从其他资产转移到最快增值的资产。

0:16 而且，

0:17 通常发生的是，比特币比其他资产跑得更快。好的，这意味着

0:22 任何投机者

0:22 和散户在认为行情结束后，比如解放日，就会去买比特币。

0:26 这很好，但是

0:27 这次他们买的时候，还有另一件事正在发生，那就是防护措施已经启动了。

0:31 我们看到稳定币交易量爆炸性增长，

0:32 稳定币市值也在爆炸性增长。

0:36 而且，这是稳定币与比特币历史上首次，

0:37 稳定币的市值和交易量不断攀升，但比特币并未同步上涨。

0:42 因此我相信，

0:43 当下一阶段开始从低位稳住时，不仅比特币会以更高的贝塔系数上涨，

0:46 因为这次超级增长资产，

0:47 不再反弹，这是一场大宗商品驱动的行情，我认为比特币将从债务资产类别中脱颖而出。

0:51 到时候，全世界的养老基金和个人都会觉得，

0:52 “嘿，如果标普500因为大宗商品牛市干扰而无法上涨，

0:56 那我得找其他能涨的资产，

0:57 于是他们就会开始买比特币。”

1:01 明白了，

1:02 所以你期待比特币与软件股脱钩，预计比特币会开始上涨。

0:00 2020 print. I'm talking about things like a Fed pivot from hiking to all of a

0:06 sudden saying,

0:06 "Yeah, we're done hiking," which was the end of 2022, which led to a big rally

0:10 before we got into

0:11 the ETF. Every single part of Bitcoin and every single part of crypto involves

0:16 something where

0:17 the liquidity moves from one of the other assets into the fastest asset. And

0:22 what always happens

0:22 is Bitcoin comes out faster than everything. Okay, great. So that means that

0:26 any speculators

0:27 retail, when they think it's over, like at Liberation Day, let's go buy Bitcoin

0:31 . That's great. Well,

0:32 this time when they buy it, there's another thing sitting there, which is the

0:36 guardrails are happening

0:37 already. We have exploding volumes and stablecoins. We have exploding market

0:42 cap and stablecoins.

0:43 And for the first time in the history of stablecoins versus Bitcoin, Bitcoin is

0:46 not rallying as the

0:47 market cap and the volumes of stablecoins are going higher. So I do believe

0:51 that when we get the next

0:52 phase where this stabilizes from lower levels, not only will Bitcoin go higher

0:56 on a higher beta,

0:57 but because the hyperscalers and this time the other growth assets will not be

1:01 bouncing,

1:02 this is a commodity-driven situation. I think Bitcoin will now separate itself

1:06 from that

1:06 debt asset class. And then every pension fund and individual in the world will

1:09 be like,

1:10 "Hey, I got to make my returns if the S&P 500 can't rally because of the stupid

1:14 commodity bull market,

1:16 let me go buy something that does and they'll start buying Bitcoin."

1:18 Gotcha. So you're looking for this decoupling of Bitcoin from software and you

1:23 're expecting

1:23 Bitcoin to start rising in operation.

Moon

· 1d

#Solana 在 2026 年 2 月首次在调整后的稳定币交易量上击败以太坊。
“调整后”=无洗盘交易，无虚假的 #CEX 成交量。仅限真实使用。
大多数人完全错过了看涨信号。 #eth

https://x.com/MilkRoad/status/2035401617386901813?s=20

中文 English

0:00 但是，如果你看看链上交易活动主要发生在哪里，

0:04 SLANA无疑一直是主导力量，无论是从零售

0:08 角度。

0:09 再看机构采用情况，二月份，

0:12 那是SLANA历史上首次超过所有其他链，

0:16 ，

0:16 包括以太坊，在调整后的稳定币交易量上领先。

0:20 调整后的稳定币交易量意味着剔除

0:24 洗盘交易，

0:25 剔除内部中心化交易所交易和其他非自然

0:28 活动。

0:29 所以即使在熊市中，我们依然看到SLANA在重要

0:33 指标上

0:34 持续取得关键进展。

Moon

· 1d

#Coinbase CEO：“最聪明的银行 CEO 们正倾向于稳定币和代币化。” #usdc #rwa

https://x.com/Etherealize_io/status/2035462529627947510?s=20

中文 English

0:00 但我认为现在所有最聪明的大银行CEO

0:03 都在倾向于

0:04 稳定币和加密货币，他们正在整合稳定币

0:08 系统，因为

0:09 它们更快更便宜。

0:10 这样可以节省Swift手续费，更快地转移客户资金。

0:13 他们还

0:14 利用加密给各种基金和资产做代币化，然后

0:17 他们

0:18 为客户提供加密交易，比如他们的高净值客户

0:22 等

0:22 想要接触这些资产的人。

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